Golden Lake Partners
Company Research, Infrastructure Technology, Cybersecurity, Vertical & Design Software
Cybersecurity stocks such as Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike and Zscaler face a sea of red once pod shops absorb the AI-disruption risk, given the sector's valuations. Investors at Slow Ventures say they are increasingly convinced AI's first major victims will be these cybersecurity incumbents, whose security stack may not survive an AI-native threat world. x.comÂ
GitLab's Duo agent download charts are not evidence of an upside inflection, because they track neither revenue nor adoption. The Duo CLI package is pulled from npm automatically every time a Duo flow runs in CI/CD, not only on install. That rebuts @Trade_Seasons, who called the Duo agent exponential and the stock undervalued, with huge upside in 1-2 quarters. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet and Okta offer terrible risk/reward because their valuations need a lot to go right. The thesis is correct: more AI agents mean more identities, endpoints and attack surfaces, so security spend should keep growing. But CrowdStrike trades at 147x forward earnings, Palo Alto at 79x, Fortinet at 44x and Okta at 41x. These are good, some exceptional, businesses, yet a great business can still be a terrible investment at the wrong price. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity stocks' large run-up is at risk from a cheaper, open Chinese AI model. ValsAI reports that DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 beat GPT 6 Sol on its offensive cybersecurity task; DeepSeek is far cheaper to run than a closed US model. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, Fortinet and Okta could spike on fear stirred by Sam Altman's AI warning. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity stocks such as CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are set to de-rate in 2027 as Anthropic and OpenAI aggressively productize frontier models into cybersecurity. The whole cyber industry would face competitive risk and lose budget share. Frontier models have a tangible edge over apps in cyber, and the labs need such revenue to justify their valuations. Palo Alto's Nikesh Arora and CrowdStrike's George Kurtz may talk big now; their demeanor 12-18 months from now is the test. x.com … Show more
Anthropic and OpenAI's inevitable move into cybersecurity threatens CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks' valuations. They look like the market's biggest bubble stocks right now; CrowdStrike trades at 40x ARR despite 25% growth and negative GAAP EBIT. x.com x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Okta and CrowdStrike benefit because data and data privacy are core ingredients of AI, making protection against cyberattacks essential. Per Chamath Palihapitiya and others on the All-In podcast, AI creates many opportunities for data leaks, a clear story behind cybersecurity's relative strength. Cyber companies also get special access to Anthropic's top Claude model, Claude Mythos, which gives them significant leverage. x.comÂ
Zscaler likely needs to broaden its product scope, or Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike will dominate security through organic growth and acquisitions. Palo Alto grows about 14% organically and mid-20s including acquisitions and, with 4x Zscaler's revenue, commands 10x EV/sales; CrowdStrike, at 2x Zscaler's revenue, gets the same multiple. Scale is being rewarded. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity is the real bubble right now, because greater importance in the age of AI does not justify paying valuations like 40x sales for names such as Cloudflare, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity may be the next big AI trade, because AI agents create a whole new attack surface. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz says the threat is now autonomous campaigns at machine speed, and each agent becomes a privileged identity needing least-privilege access and a kill switch, pushing security into runtime infrastructure. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto and Zscaler are in a land grab. CrowdStrike's 15 years of telemetry can't be copied, making its Threat Graph a network effect. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity is a great AI play, but some valuations are getting absolutely ridiculous, and great companies are not great stocks at any price. CrowdStrike trades at 186x forward earnings and 40x sales, Cloudflare at 209x and 43x, Palo Alto Networks at 87x and 21x, and Rubrik at 327x and 11.5x. x.comÂ
