Babyfolio
Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor
CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet and Okta offer terrible risk/reward because their valuations need a lot to go right. The thesis is correct: more AI agents mean more identities, endpoints and attack surfaces, so security spend should keep growing. But CrowdStrike trades at 147x forward earnings, Palo Alto at 79x, Fortinet at 44x and Okta at 41x. These are good, some exceptional, businesses, yet a great business can still be a terrible investment at the wrong price. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity is a great AI play, but some valuations are getting absolutely ridiculous, and great companies are not great stocks at any price. CrowdStrike trades at 186x forward earnings and 40x sales, Cloudflare at 209x and 43x, Palo Alto Networks at 87x and 21x, and Rubrik at 327x and 11.5x. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity stocks such as Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike and Zscaler face a sea of red once pod shops absorb the AI-disruption risk, given the sector's valuations. Investors at Slow Ventures say they are increasingly convinced AI's first major victims will be these cybersecurity incumbents, whose security stack may not survive an AI-native threat world. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Okta and CrowdStrike benefit because data and data privacy are core ingredients of AI, making protection against cyberattacks essential. Per Chamath Palihapitiya and others on the All-In podcast, AI creates many opportunities for data leaks, a clear story behind cybersecurity's relative strength. Cyber companies also get special access to Anthropic's top Claude model, Claude Mythos, which gives them significant leverage. x.comÂ
Hyperscaler cloud integration and frontier AI labs could take a fair bit of cybersecurity's economics. Rising AI-token budgets also make higher cyber spending a stretch. Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare have nearly $1 trillion in market cap on less than $20 billion in revenue; even high-quality Palo Alto and Cloudflare look too expensive, while Okta looks indefensibly expensive. The theme has real demand, but these valuations look too high in the short to medium term. x.comÂ
Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, Fortinet and Okta could spike on fear stirred by Sam Altman's AI warning. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity stocks are priced for near-perfect execution. Forward P/Es stand at 201x for Cloudflare, 163x for CrowdStrike, 77x for Palo Alto Networks, 44x for Fortinet, 39x for Okta and 32x for Zscaler. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity is the real bubble right now, because greater importance in the age of AI does not justify paying valuations like 40x sales for names such as Cloudflare, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity, the best-performing part of software this year, can keep rising as AI safety concerns emerge. Okta is up 116% year to date, Fortinet 113%, Palo Alto Networks 104%, CrowdStrike 99%, Datadog 69%, Cloudflare 67%, F5 61% and SentinelOne 50%. Every one beat on both revenue and EPS last quarter and trades above major technical supports. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity stocks such as CrowdStrike are poor buys now because they have already run 150% to 30x next-twelve-month revenue. @michaelsikand pitches them as the next $1 trillion AI bottleneck, citing CrowdStrike's record $1.47B quarter and George Kurtz's view that AI agent security could outgrow endpoint security. x.comÂ
