Nvidia's higher token output per watt could win it share as access to power becomes a bigger constraint, according to Nvidia. The market expects further share losses to ASICs, helping explain its 15x calendar-2027 P/E; a small sentiment shift could expand the multiple. Nvidia remains especially attractive paired with shorts in semiconductors and should outperform the sector through its November 19 earnings. x.com 

Navitas Semiconductor is one of the favorite names of 2026, pitched about 15 times this year, and it has risen 47% since the April 8 thesis. x.com 

Navitas Semiconductor's Nvidia deal is worth far less than the hype suggests: even with the 40% share people expect, it might add only about $30M in total revenue. Wolfspeed already has almost double that in annualized data-center revenue today, before any 800V data centers or power-grid upgrades. x.com 

Navitas is an option on Nvidia's 800V DC data-center architecture, where GaN handles the step-down from 800 volts to processor level inside the rack. The design halves power conversion stages so racks can reach the up to 8 megawatts Rubin Ultra needs, with full deployment alongside Kyber in 2027. Navitas, on Nvidia's partner list, is the only US-listed pure-play GaN company. Revenue is minimal until the Kyber ramp, and Nvidia's 29-company partner list means hard pricing pressure. x.com 

Wolfspeed's patent suit against Navitas reads as a compliment, a market share dispute filed as a patent case. Incumbents don't sue irrelevant rivals, and Wolfspeed, fresh out of Chapter 11, is targeting nearly Navitas's whole GaN and SiC catalog just after Navitas was designed into NVIDIA's 800V architecture. Such suits usually end in settlements and cross-licenses, not injunctions, and demand doesn't pause. Legal costs, discovery risk and an existing ATM are real overhangs. x.com 

Navitas is a one-customer concentration story facing heavy competition from tier-one suppliers. Its GaN portfolio winning Nvidia adoption played out, but STMicroelectronics and Infineon also supply Nvidia and are strong in GaN and SiC. GaN output may quadruple by 2030, yet SiC prices were hammered by Chinese capacity, unresolved, so revenue and margins could diverge sharply. Power and thermal efficiency are better played across these names than through Navitas alone. x.com 

Denser AI accelerators raise the value of efficient power delivery near processors, potentially making Navitas one of the most hidden AI winners in Nvidia's architecture. Its 24 kW board targets single-stage 800V-to-12V conversion at about 97% efficiency in Nvidia's 400 mm by 60 mm format. An 800V-to-6V design developed with Nvidia and Claros offer other paths into the power stack. This is a showcase, not a production order; shipment volumes, revenue and competition remain uncertain. x.com 

Rising Chinese competition and doubts about valuations add to Nvidia's downside risk as the AI sector bleeds. Nvidia's break from an uptrending triangular pattern rarely ends well; the AI bubble is cracking, and the trendline break marks the beginning of something much bigger. x.com 

Navitas is exposed to a real thesis, power delivery as AI's next bottleneck, through a high-risk stock. Rack power is heading from 150kW to over 1,000kW, and Navitas has full-stack GaN and SiC, an 800V HVDC design partnership with Nvidia and a 96.5%-efficient 800V-to-6V board. But Q4 2025 revenue fell 59% to $7.3M, it trades near 211x trailing EV/revenue, loses money, revenue inflection is 2-3 years away, and Infineon, Vicor and Delta got similar Nvidia mentions. Valuation conviction is low. … Show more

Nvidia's shares remain pressured because neoclouds have yet to show demand revenue can cover debt service even at higher rates. CoreWeave and Nebius are dragging the shares, though that concern is being priced in and digested. Reuters reports ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordered $35B in Nvidia chips; Elon Musk says SpaceX is on track to bring roughly 200,000 GB300 GPUs online per month through end-2026. Nvidia made a higher low, and the next higher-high target is $256. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com