Adtran is an optical name still valued like dying copper broadband at about 1x sales, versus roughly 25x for Lumentum. Its LiteWave800 linear pluggable module uses 6-10x less power than first-gen LPO, and Goldman sees 800G holding meaningful share through 2028. Q1 revenue rose 15.5% with optical up 24%. Per the CEO, LiteWave reaches volume about a year out and large data centers aren't its sweet spot, so AI optics is a 2027 story. US broadband funding and EU Huawei replacement anchor the floor. … Show more

ADTRAN could re-rate like Harmonic once the market understands its optical networking story, as it sits at the start of three tailwinds at once. US BEAD broadband funding should contribute substantially from late 2026; Europe's proposed Huawei removal favors ADTRAN as a primary Western alternative; and AI data center optics, a $154 billion TAM by 2028 per Goldman Sachs, fits its new LiteWave800. Q1 revenue rose 15.5% to $286.1 million, US revenue 42%, and operating margin reached 6.9%. x.com  … Show more

Adtran's new optical product now looks badly timed. After the earnings call it looks like a prototype, not even at sampling, while the market has moved past 100G per lane and 800G may be skipped faster than expected in favor of 1.6T and CPO. The CEO said in May that volume production should be ready in about a year, just as competitors bring much more capacity online. Customers like it and Adtran should find a place, but a smaller, slower revenue ramp makes the re-rating less compelling. x.com 

ADTRAN is a key beneficiary of the ongoing global fiber networking rollout. x.com 

Adtran is trading as if AI data centers do not exist. x.com 

ADTRAN is best avoided because it has failed to execute well during an upcycle, however cheap it looks relative to peers and despite its optical assets. x.com 

Corning now has long-term fiber deals with both Verizon and AT&T, supplying both broadband expansion and links between AI data centers. AT&T announced a multiyear fiber and cable deal exceeding $3B focused on home and business broadband, following Verizon's multibillion-dollar deal for over 80 million fiber miles from 2027 to 2032, including long-haul AI data center links. These deals could improve demand visibility; watch shipment ramps and profit growth versus expansion costs. x.com 

Adtran Holdings looked undervalued as a small cap with about 56% upside, at a $695M market cap on $1.04B of revenue, 21x forward earnings and 14% revenue growth. It has since risen 95% despite a volatile market and should reach $20 soon. x.com 

Ciena is becoming an AI infrastructure story rather than a telecom equipment one, because bandwidth between data centers could become the next major constraint as AI capacity spreads across campuses and regions. Its CEO framed Ciena as a critical connectivity layer as larger AI clusters drive structurally higher optical networking demand. Per Bloomberg's framing, the selloff after a Q3 beat looks like an expectations and valuation reset, not weaker demand, possibly a better entry point. x.com 

Harmonic is still incredibly early in a global adoption wave: a first smaller European operator has started deploying its solutions, and the giants will have to follow given technical realities. Its cOS virtualized platform dominates the cable core, delivering multi-gigabit DOCSIS 4.0 over existing coax; per @KawzInvests, Comcast, Charter, Cox and Altice run it, with 150 customers and 45.7 million modems. Virtual OLT software opens a $2.5 billion-plus fiber market. x.com  x.com