Cava could become a bargain as investors abandon restaurant and food stocks to chase AI. x.comÂ
Mike
Investor, Creator of HiddenSmallCaps
CAVA looks attractive near $50, close to its 52-week low, with sales projected to grow more than 20% a year for the next three years. It is still an expensive stock at a P/E above 90. x.comÂ
Cava's restaurants, nearly the only fast-food chain in the Mediterranean space, are about to pass Chipotle in sales per unit. Two officers have bought shares, a positive write-up lifted the stock 3.4%, and the chart shows a bullish falling wedge. x.comÂ
CAVA's growth trajectory just doesn't support its current share price, making it a short idea. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq's momentum selloff looks like a crowded AI trade unwinding into cyclicals, a washout rather than a top. Goldman's high-beta momentum index fell 24% in early July, its worst since April 2009, per @stocktalkweekly, yet the index held as money rotated rather than left, with AI names de-rating even on TSMC's beat. The real risk is financing: AI capex has outrun cash flow and runs on cheap money, debt and vendor paper, so tighter credit could stall the buildout even with strong demand. … Show more
CAVA's 30% jump in three days on no news looks like a bizarre late-cycle move against weak fundamentals. Screwworm, a declining savings rate and a ridiculous valuation all argue against it. Target and private-credit-exposed names like Ares have shown similarly relentless moves late in the week. x.comÂ
Cava's share price looks out of line with the restaurant sector. Restaurants are carnage right now, with Chipotle back at $32, so there is little reason for Cava to hold up here. x.comÂ
Cava Group's valuation is hard to justify for a restaurant chain at 74x 2028 earnings, a multiple even Chipotle never reached during its hypergrowth phase. That holds even though, as @Brian_Stoffel_ notes, Cava's same-store sales rose about 10%, well ahead of its closest competition, with traffic up about 7%. x.comÂ
Cava looks like a decent short because rising input costs are about to hit just as consumers get squeezed. Higher energy, urea and fertilizer prices will almost certainly raise food costs, while the stock trades at 114x forward earnings for about 25% expected EPS growth over five years. Much of the recent rally looks like a short squeeze that is likely nearly or already done. x.com x.comÂ
Cava Group trades at the EV/sales multiple where Chipotle peaked, despite vastly inferior unit economics. The persistent bid under the stock is ridiculous. A post the author replies to notes Chipotle's permabid lasted six years, about as far as the fast-casual concept can run before gravity resumes. x.com x.comÂ
Cava's growth is not sustainable because quality tends to fall as scale goes up, as happened at Chipotle. A post the author replies to adds that Cava's suburban expansion is not making money, same-store sales are down and more than 100 new bowl competitors are eating into it in what it calls a slop-bowl bubble. x.comÂ