SasoEquity
AI & Robotics Investor
Planet Labs is not yet a buy after its 24% drop because a newly announced $1.5 billion at-the-market offering hangs over every bounce. Filings will show how much is sold: light use of $100-200 million would limit the overhang, while aggressive early selling would mean more downside. The $28-30 zone, about 24x forward revenue on the new $433 million guide, is still rich but closer to fair for high-growth space and defense names, and a retest of $25 would be an excellent entry. x.comÂ
Planet Labs should offer immense value as the number one player with the best network, but management keeps failing to unlock it. As a public benefit corporation, it is not permitted some forms of monetization. It needs to get its act together and focus on revenue, and with no visibility on when or if that happens, caution is warranted. x.comÂ
Planet Labs' $1.5B at-the-market offering signals that its balance sheet needs the option, because management did not push back on the size. @spacanpanman notes the ATM equals 12.4% of Planet Labs' market cap, versus about 3.5% for Rocket Lab's $3B ATM, calling it too aggressive and an avoidable blunder. x.comÂ
Planet Labs holding its gains in a psychotic market is remarkable, and it should go much higher once conditions normalize. It has delivered four monster earnings reports in a row and never broke its 10-week moving average. x.comÂ
Spire Global looks cheap at 5x EV/sales with 50% revenue growth expected in 2026, against Planet Labs at 22x EV/sales with 40% growth. @wliang, comparing Planet Labs' $12B market cap with BlackSky's $1B and Satellogic's $700M, expects the space-imaging valuation gap could fill soon. x.comÂ
Satellogic has much higher upside than Planet Labs, with an inflection point likely later this year when it launches its Merlin satellites. Replying to @Kaizen_Investor's Planet Labs deep dive, Satellogic is the preferred name between the two. x.comÂ
Planet Labs has an excellent fundamental trend and is a long-term pick within the smaller-cap space theme, though it is less attractive than Rocket Lab on both fundamentals and technicals. The worst of the pain is likely done, even if more near-term shakeout comes. Rocket Lab tackles a much larger addressable market with near-flawless execution. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are not buys because their sales multiples are too high, even after the selloff. Rocket Lab trades at 30x sales after a 14% drawdown, while AST SpaceMobile trades at 138x sales. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's $3B at-the-market offering shows it needs investor cash because it has no real earnings or path to profitability, and it should have raised $10-15B while the window lasts. Selling stock at such a high valuation is the only way to sustain the next 18-24 months, and the coming SpaceX IPO will most likely be the sell event for the entire space sector. x.com x.comÂ
Planet Labs is gapping up to all-time highs on record revenue, backlog up 79% year over year and positive free cash flow. It is a later-stage gap after three straight quarterly gaps, but it could still be worth a try since gappers have been working. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab should see money flow back once SpaceX's rich valuation corrects. SpaceX's listing day could be sell-the-news, pulling Rocket Lab back to $90-100 at most, but at roughly 90-100x sales it is valued about the same as SpaceX at around 115x. With expected Nasdaq inclusion on June 22 and capital rotating from SpaceX into quality space stocks, a lower-high move toward the $130 target banks just raised is possible. x.com x.comÂ
