The Great Mattsby
Chartist, Gann Theory, Stocks/Crypto/FX
Rocket Lab got bullish news right at a major support zone with a $266 million US Air Force contract. Per @amitisinvesting, the Alaska launches run through 2028 and extend its streak of defense wins, the drop from $150 to $60 looks aggressive, and Neutron, Golden Dome and the Iridium acquisition remain important future catalysts. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is set up for a breakout as its technicals and fundamentals align. A W-bottom is forming, with price bouncing off $64.6 support. Q2 revenue hit a record $234 million, up 62% year over year, and backlog rose 137% to an all-time high of $2.36 billion. It won a $397 million Space Force SB-AMTI contract to build and launch Flatellites on Neutron and joined the $981 million NITE-STAR contract ceiling, showing it is a vertically integrated space company, not just a launch provider. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab keeps executing: the US Space Force awarded it a $397M contract to build multiple advanced Flatellite spacecraft for the SB-AMTI program, which detects and tracks airborne threats in real time, and to launch them on Neutron. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is probably worth about $10 billion, far below the nearly $50 billion it trades at. @FindleysFinance notes trailing revenue of $769 million and operating cash flow of negative $222 million. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's $266M US Air Force contract for 12 suborbital launches should boost the stock, and possibly the whole space sector. x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Space and defense stocks such as Rocket Lab, Kratos and AeroVironment warrant skepticism after a big run because the sector doesn't generate profits the way other sectors do. Many of the announced deals are burdens that take a long time to execute. Excitement around Rocket Lab could return before or after its Neutron launch. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's bounce has room to run to $65 after buyers returned following shipment of Neutron's second stage to its Virginia launch site. A break above $65 before November 9 results remains the real test. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab delivered a really bullish report. Per @allday_stocks, Q1 revenue of $200.3M beat the $189.41M estimate, up 63.5% year on year, with a record 38.2% GAAP gross margin and backlog up 20.2% quarter on quarter to $2.2B. It sold more launches in Q1 than in all of 2025, guided Q2 revenue to $225-240M versus $205.18M expected, and Neutron remains on track to debut later this year, with defense momentum tied to Golden Dome and hypersonics. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's $3B at-the-market offering shows it needs investor cash because it has no real earnings or path to profitability, and it should have raised $10-15B while the window lasts. Selling stock at such a high valuation is the only way to sustain the next 18-24 months, and the coming SpaceX IPO will most likely be the sell event for the entire space sector. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is one of the very few public space companies with a real chance to compete alongside SpaceX, in a trillion-dollar space economy with room for several major winners as launch demand explodes. It posted a record quarter with a $2.2 billion backlog, won a $30 million Anduril contract, signed its largest launch agreement, was picked with Raytheon for the Space Force's Space-Based Interceptor program, and is acquiring Motiv Space Systems. x.comÂ
