Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
USA Rare Earth's CEO transition looks good for its push to become a vertically integrated rare-earth company. Outgoing CEO Barbara, at retirement age, led a short but pivotal tenure that included the large Serra Verde acquisition, and the Serra Verde executive who joined through that deal is taking over. x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth is a long-term holding on a rare earth bottleneck thesis heading into the 2030s. The position rests on confluence: fundamental outlook, technical setup, sentiment and macro factors lining up. A quick rip back toward the all-time high could justify taking some profits, but the plan is long term. x.com x.comÂ
US government backing and China's roughly 90% control of the global heavy-metals and rare-earth market make USA Rare Earth an easy hold. Its projected 2030 revenue is $2.6 billion, and most stocks in the basket trade at 20-30x sales. It is especially an easy hold near the log 0.786 Fibonacci level, with weekly RSI at 30. x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth's breakout has fundamental backing because a domestic rare earth supply chain is a White House priority and China export uncertainty keeps a bid under US names. It ended Q1 with $1.75 billion of cash after a $1.5 billion PIPE, commissioned Phase 1a magnet production at Stillwater, won $19.3 million of DOE funding and a $14.18 million Texas grant, and signed the Serra Verde acquisition. Analysts average a $36.57 target, up to $45, though timing is awkward after the recent run. … Show more
USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and MP Materials are a pass for now because whale accumulation on their weekly charts is gradually decreasing. They are not a favored setup yet. x.comÂ
Domestic rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains will make this stock group a generational wealth builder this year. REalloys has Army negotiations and an EXIM letter of interest; USA Rare Earth is developing a mine-to-magnet chain; MP Materials is expanding into magnets; Energy Fuels processes rare earths; and Lithium Americas is advancing Thacker Pass with GM and DOE support. REalloys paid to be included in this list. x.com x.com x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth is becoming an integrated non-Chinese rare-earth supplier from mine to magnet, a scarce Western moat as supply chains de-risk from Asia. Its roughly $2.8 billion merger with Brazil's Serra Verde, due to close by end-August, adds mature low-cost upstream mining. Its Wheat Ridge, Colorado plant produced commercial-grade dysprosium and NdPr oxide from recycled magnet swarf, which could cover up to 30% of feedstock. It is also taking a 13.6% stake in French processor Carester. x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth is the highest-upside way to play Trump's push for magnets. It targets heavy rare earths through a full-stack US supply chain, is a strategic government asset and reduces reliance on China. If it actually builds a domestic heavy rare earth and magnet supply chain, the upside could be insane. x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth is a unique long-term situation, much like MP Materials a few years ago, with its edge in the Trump administration's financial backing and the Round Top project in Texas. MP's edge was buying Molycorp's roughly $1.9B of sunk Mountain Pass costs for $20.5M. Round Top is a surface-exposed rhyolite dome highly enriched in heavy rare earths, yttrium, lithium and beryllium, creating a massive, accessible and unusually high-grade source, unlike traditional ionic clay deposits. x.comÂ
US rare-earth and critical-mineral stocks could benefit from up to $1.6B of US investment in a domestic supply chain, even as heavy rare-earth stocks crash. USA Rare Earth is building a US mine-to-magnet chain including dysprosium and terbium; MP Materials is expanding into heavy rare-earth separation, alloys and magnets; Energy Fuels is expanding US separation; Critical Metals is developing Greenland's Tanbreez; NioCorp and American Resources are building US critical-mineral projects. x.com … Show more
USA Rare Earth's setup looks very strong, helped by a letter of intent for US government investment. Past US government investments, as in Intel, have led to really great moves. x.comÂ
USA Rare Earth's $1.75B cash is the real story, funding the Texas mining and magnet operations behind the first vertically integrated US rare earth supply chain. China refines 85% of the world's rare earths, and its NdPr magnets go into every humanoid robot actuator; without them the humanoid build stops. The $5.7M Q1 revenue is the wrong frame. If the Texas ramp holds schedule, the stock is on a path to $28-29 next quarter, with a floor around $20 in a pullback. x.comÂ
