onsemi's inventory correction is ending while its AI data center business surges, yet the stock is about 46% below its June 3 high. Distribution inventory fell to 10.1 weeks, fab utilization rose to 83% and lead times stretched from 27 to 32 weeks. The company expects AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026, and management targets another doubling in 2027. onsemi says power content per AI rack can rise from about $15,000 to roughly $115,000 as racks move to high-voltage designs. x.com  … Show more

Alphabet's AI capex payback is being repriced, making its post-earnings decline more than a one-day mood swing. Guidance and cloud and AI margin commentary are the near-term tests. If growth continues but the multiple compresses, the risk is duration in mega-cap AI, not a collapse in technology growth. x.com 

SK hynix's contracted capacity gives its AI-memory demand case more visibility. It reported an 80% operating margin on ₩104.6 trillion of revenue, with sales more than quadrupling year over year and over half of 2027 and 2028 capacity under long-term contracts. Vertiv's sales grew 61%, orders more than doubled, and it raised full-year guidance again; so far, AI demand is still accelerating. x.com 

STMicroelectronics, onsemi, Texas Instruments and Allegro MicroSystems benefit as AI data center server ramps drive analog demand, offsetting part of continued auto weakness, per an interesting Mizuho note. Mizuho says analog lead times are rising toward 40-42+ weeks with price hikes expected around June and July, and it raised targets on STMicro, onsemi and TI. Per @sean_________ quoting Mizuho, TI plans a second price increase this year, while STMicro and Allegro raised prices about 10%. x.com 

Supermicro's sharply higher preliminary revenue and margin guidance suggests AI server orders are still being pulled through despite capex-fatigue fears. Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance rose from $14.5-$15.5B to $18.5-$19.5B, and gross margin guidance to 12.0%-12.5%. Scale into fatigue pullbacks, but these are unaudited figures; customer concentration, tariffs or a weak November 3 report could reverse the case. x.com 

AI-exposed semiconductors face near-term demand risk as Anthropic's revenue growth slows. Monthly additions fell from $10B to ~$2-3B, though October may improve and one-off headwinds contributed. The AI selloff is not irrational amid rates, debt, politics and supply-chain risks. Despite long-term optimism, a short-term bull case needs an Anthropic IPO or OpenAI fundraise, calmer rates and debt funding, blowout cloud earnings with EPS upgrades, and new applications reviving token monetization. … Show more

Nvidia's capacity commitments argue against AI orders drying up soon. Its filings show mostly memory and manufacturing commitments rising from $119 billion to $279 billion in one quarter, with about $175 billion covering 2027-28. Fewer new data-center projects could reflect power, land and building bottlenecks rather than weaker demand; a mid-teens multiple still reflects a fair worry that profits may not last. x.com 

TSMC's capex plans suggest the AI chip trade is not over for semiconductors, Nvidia, AMD and Micron. CFO Wendell Huang cites robust multi-year demand, including agentic AI, behind $60-64 billion of 2026 capex; TSMC expects 2026-28 spending to be even more significantly higher than in the prior three years. Hyperscaler earnings should reinforce the higher AI capex trajectory. CoreWeave-driven fears feel overdone, though the neocloud model does not appeal long term. x.com  x.com 

AI suppliers' profits and signed demand distinguish this buildout from dotcom overcapacity. AI leaders rose 2.9x on 3.1x earnings growth versus 7.4x on 2.1x before 2000; cloud providers have $2.3T in signed backlog. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta could repay debt with about six months' cash flow, unlike 2008's leveraged banks. Micron has multiyear take-or-pay deals and ASML has orders years ahead. Memory profits are cyclical; TSMC, ASML and GE Vernova remain favored in AI's early innings. … Show more

TSMC's latest results point to AI chip demand still running ahead of supply, supporting the semiconductor and equipment trade. Cantor says TSMC raised its 2026 revenue outlook again, guided December-quarter sales above consensus and held 65-67% gross-margin guidance through the N2 ramp; its bullish sector read names Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. Jensen Huang says AI labs need not reach trillions in revenue to justify the buildout. x.com  x.com