Onsemi's AI data center business is no longer a side story: revenue there is now expected to more than double in 2026, with growth across the whole power tree. Management is shifting capacity from autos to AI, utilization rose from 77% to 83% with most of the margin benefit due in Q4 and 2027, a second round of price increases is holding, and lead times stretched to 32 weeks with visibility into 2027-2028. Content per rack is projected to rise from about $15k today to $115k by 2030. x.com 

Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ON Semiconductor has been bid up unrealistically, something that happens only in the strongest chip markets. It traded in the $30s a year ago and deserves about $60-80. x.com 

onsemi's revised all-cash deal avoids equity dilution while keeping debt manageable, after the price was cut by $1.3B. Even at 7-7.5% financing, incremental interest of $170-180M lifts total interest to $250-270M against $1.7B of EBITDA, covered 6-7x, instead of diluting 12% of the company. Net debt stays under 1x EBITDA and the debt can be repaid in three years. @EricJhonsa notes higher yields raise financing costs for an all-cash deal. x.com 

Onsemi's Synaptics deal matters more than most investors realize, marking a major move into physical AI through Synaptics' edge AI compute, connectivity and software, with far greater exposure to robotics and intelligent edge systems. Shares fell 21% on the all-stock structure's dilution, a short-term negative against long-term strategic benefits; an all-cash or mixed deal would have been preferable. x.com  x.com 

Pure or heavy silicon carbide players such as STMicroelectronics, onsemi and Wolfspeed look higher-risk and currently unappealing in the AI data-center shift to 800V DC power and solid-state transformers. The better risk/reward in that transition sits with power-electronics names positioned for it, such as Enphase and SolarEdge, whose bidirectional power-conversion know-how suits transformers that step 13 kV utility power down to 800V DC and must handle sudden GPU load swings. x.com 

STMicroelectronics offers rare asymmetry for a large cap: a bear case in line with the S&P 500, a slightly better base case and a wildly better bull case. 2026 marked an inflection in its data-center business, with a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar Amazon agreement and guidance raised from $1B before 2030 to well above $2B in 2027. A base case with a modest AI business implies 15% annual growth through 2030; if photonics, power and robotics reach a third of revenue, 30-50%. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors are more likely to go up than down from here at current valuations, since 2028 is probably a 20-30% capex growth year. AI capabilities and model revenue are ramping at an unprecedented pace and chip spending drives earnings growth for the whole market, while multiples stay reasonable on cyclical fears. The risk: model revenue added about $170 billion in 2026 against $780 billion of capex, and if capex flattens after an expected $1.1 trillion in 2027, multiples may stay low. x.com 

Analog and power semiconductor stocks such as ON Semiconductor, Texas Instruments and NXP are pricing far ahead of their fundamentals. Even with price hikes they are not back to 2022 revenue, yet their share prices have risen multifold. The semiconductor supercycle is lifting even these laggards. x.com  x.com 

STMicroelectronics, onsemi, Texas Instruments and Allegro MicroSystems benefit as AI data center server ramps drive analog demand, offsetting part of continued auto weakness, per an interesting Mizuho note. Mizuho says analog lead times are rising toward 40-42+ weeks with price hikes expected around June and July, and it raised targets on STMicro, onsemi and TI. Per @sean_________ quoting Mizuho, TI plans a second price increase this year, while STMicro and Allegro raised prices about 10%. x.com