Research & Invest
Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background
onsemi's revised all-cash deal avoids equity dilution while keeping debt manageable, after the price was cut by $1.3B. Even at 7-7.5% financing, incremental interest of $170-180M lifts total interest to $250-270M against $1.7B of EBITDA, covered 6-7x, instead of diluting 12% of the company. Net debt stays under 1x EBITDA and the debt can be repaid in three years. @EricJhonsa notes higher yields raise financing costs for an all-cash deal. x.comÂ
onsemi's inventory correction is ending while its AI data center business surges, yet the stock is about 46% below its June 3 high. Distribution inventory fell to 10.1 weeks, fab utilization rose to 83% and lead times stretched from 27 to 32 weeks. The company expects AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026, and management targets another doubling in 2027. onsemi says power content per AI rack can rise from about $15,000 to roughly $115,000 as racks move to high-voltage designs. x.com … Show more
Onsemi's Synaptics deal matters more than most investors realize, marking a major move into physical AI through Synaptics' edge AI compute, connectivity and software, with far greater exposure to robotics and intelligent edge systems. Shares fell 21% on the all-stock structure's dilution, a short-term negative against long-term strategic benefits; an all-cash or mixed deal would have been preferable. x.com x.comÂ
ON Semiconductor has been bid up unrealistically, something that happens only in the strongest chip markets. It traded in the $30s a year ago and deserves about $60-80. x.comÂ
Ondas's roughly $1B in preserved cash could be a major advantage over debt-dependent rivals if inflation keeps rates high. It can fund expansion without costly borrowing and might buy strained rivals' assets more cheaply. At a 4% realized yield, $1B would earn about $40M a year, though cash may earn less. Inflation can raise costs and higher rates pressure growth-stock valuations; equity-funded deals still must create more value per share than they give up. x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave's financing model still works if it can keep funding capex with contract-backed loans at roughly 6-9%. Its existing debt costs about 8.4% blended, not 15%; the 15% figure is the market yield on its 2032 bond, which it locked at 9.625%. With roughly $20B of 2026 capex left and more needed in 2027, the next deal is critical: another $20B at 15% would cost $3B a year, more than current annual interest, and the model would not work. Spreads near 1,000 bp have made new borrowing pricier. … Show more
Onsemi's AI data center business is no longer a side story: revenue there is now expected to more than double in 2026, with growth across the whole power tree. Management is shifting capacity from autos to AI, utilization rose from 77% to 83% with most of the margin benefit due in Q4 and 2027, a second round of price increases is holding, and lead times stretched to 32 weeks with visibility into 2027-2028. Content per rack is projected to rise from about $15k today to $115k by 2030. x.comÂ
Cipher Mining faces likely dilution from its proposed zero-interest debt given its cash flow. The $850m financing would spare cash coupons but leave repayment obligations. x.com x.comÂ
These ten semiconductor stocks look cheap because each has a PEG ratio near or below 1, meaning growth outpaces valuation. Nvidia's Q1 revenue rose 85% and AMD's 38% with MI350 commitments; Broadcom's AI chip revenue rose 143% with a $73B AI backlog; Marvell's custom silicon doubled. Sandisk has $42B in contracted backlog, Micron's HBM is sold out through 2026, and Coherent, Credo and Applied Optoelectronics ride AI optics demand. ON Semiconductor is the slow-growth value play. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Super Micro Computer's roughly $7B equity and equity-linked financing plan to fund AI server component purchases is a short-term overhang on the stock, even though it signals strong demand. The market reads it as shareholder dilution, further proof the business is highly capital intensive, execution risk in turning a huge backlog into profitable cash flow, and growth funded with new paper rather than internal cash. Broader AI hardware weakness played a smaller role. x.comÂ
Investors are aggressively funding Intel as an AI infrastructure manufacturer: its upsized $20B stock offering drew over $100B of demand, about 5x oversubscribed even after a huge run. The capital supports its push to high-volume 14A production by 2028 across foundry, advanced packaging and AI silicon. Tesla and Terafab as anchor external customers make this turnaround more credible than past ones. The cost is roughly 5% dilution. x.comÂ
