Sean D. Emory
Founding Partner & CIO of Avory & Co., Avory Foundational ETF (AVRY)
Reddit is one of the most compelling opportunities in the market, and today's worries about Google referrals and AI disruption will look like the moment to have bought. Investors fixated on search-referral risk and short-term user growth are missing exceptional financial performance: surging revenue, expanding margins and no debt. It trades at just 19x an estimated $1.7 billion of 2027 free cash flow, supporting a $315 target by early 2027. x.comÂ
Reddit still looks undervalued as Needham's Q3 traffic tracker shows app downloads up 19% and web visitors up 2-3% quarter over quarter, adding to strong alternative data behind an expected Q3 beat and raise. Shares trade at 18x next-twelve-month EPS while revenue is growing 60-65% and EPS 65-70% year over year; new Anthropic, OpenAI or Gemini licensing deals remain possible over the next couple of months, not secured. x.comÂ
Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com x.comÂ
Reddit pairs ridiculously good growth with clean financials. It grows without making the rest of the business worse through excessive stock-based compensation or falling margins, and clean financials matter a lot. x.comÂ
Reddit is cheaper now than in 2025 even though its revenue has nearly doubled since then. x.comÂ
Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com x.comÂ
Reddit's 61% revenue growth and 177% EPS growth at a 30 P/E make it easy to imagine it working out well, even if its management is detestable. x.comÂ
Reddit looks attractive after a roughly 44% drawdown left it at about 17.5x forward earnings. x.comÂ
Reddit carries Pinterest-like downside to a 10x P/E if investors decide North American user growth is toast, while the stock is priced on everyone playing for big numbers from new lab deals. x.comÂ
Reddit's pullback below $150 on insider-selling headlines is not a fundamental shift, as monetization is accelerating faster than user growth. Q1 2026 revenue grew 69% to $663 million with $204 million of net income, a 31% margin, and EPS of $1.01 was 7x a year earlier. Daily active users rose 17% to 126.8 million while ARPU jumped 44% to $5.23. AI data licensing deals with Google and OpenAI are a higher-margin second engine, projected to reach $400 million a year by 2027. x.comÂ