Broadcom faces a correction of at least 30% because semiconductors are at the end of their hog cycle. x.com
Thierry from arvy
CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing
Broadcom looks increasingly like a long-term short because the industry seems to be moving away from its technology. Its charts also suggest the big run is done: the weekly chart shows a Darvas box breakdown this week after heavy selling volume in December, and the quarterly chart shows a clear topping shooting-star bar. It may become a source of funds. x.com
Broadcom looks overpriced at 83x trailing and 48x forward earnings and 29x sales, and could correct sharply if markets hit a 20% mid-term drawdown. Its strength is real: it acts like a high-end hedge fund, acquiring and operating only in leading tech themes and consistently landing on the right side of history. x.com
Broadcom's growth opportunities support a premium despite its stock not being dirt cheap. The selloff was much needed for big winners like it. Broadcom now occupies the position Microsoft did when it was called a 'gift' at $350 and one of the simplest buys of 2026, with around 75-85% upside in 1-2 years. It is a solid risk-reward buy here and lower. x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's great earnings don't matter much at a P/E of 93 and forward P/E of 37. Valuation is the problem, and Broadcom, like a lot of others, needs a 20%+ pullback. x.com
Deployment limits will slow AI hardware spending and expose cyclical suppliers such as SK hynix. Amazon has hardware waiting for power, and Broadcom's CEO said some clients delayed shipments because they could not deploy. Cheap forward multiples can mark a cyclical peak as analysts extrapolate growth. The slowdown could have begun or be a year away; timing is uncertain, so reducing cyclical risk in favor of healthier, genuinely cheap names looks better. x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's business model, cash flow, order book and dividend growth make it a long-term investment no-brainer, per Th96Trading. Broadcom is the most undervalued stock in the market right now; the attached chart shows quarterly revenue up 227.3% over five years to $22.19B. x.com x.com
Broadcom's valuation is likely to price in margin compression even if its actual margins hold, because squeezing leading suppliers' margins is the core aim of its four big customers. Chips are now production tools for cloud providers, so saving money is making money, and they shift to lower-margin second suppliers wherever they can. Real shortages make that hard near term, but the market prices it in early, as with Nvidia's 12x P/E. Trading can diverge from fundamentals. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's demand case looks less credible because the person projecting a fourfold EPS increase by 2030 now says that demand comes from gamblers consuming tokens. The person raising roughly $100B to finance chips also warns that a lack of capital could stop the bubble. Broadcom is no longer appealing. x.com x.com
Broadcom is at least 30-40% undervalued, trading at about a market multiple of 22x forward earnings despite many growth drivers. FY2026 Q3 revenue rose 86%, operating income 92% and EPS 96% year over year even with supply constraints, though Q4 guidance was a little light. Per @saso_capital, Hock Tan said data-center readiness, not supply, is the constraint, across six XPU customers including Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta and Google. The stock is bouncing off a big volume shelf from April 2025. x.com … Show more
Broadcom borrowing again signals a $1.8 trillion company running low on cash. Per @KobeissiLetter, citing the WSJ, Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion of financing for OpenAI's custom AI chip, with Apollo and Blackstone among the lenders it has approached. x.com