Sean D. Emory
Founding Partner & CIO of Avory & Co., Avory Foundational ETF (AVRY)
Suja Life looks unattractive because it is heavily levered and already guided down after its first report as a public company. Its adjusted EBITDA is adjusted for a reason, and while it may be the category winner, consumers likely don't care who leads in juice; its products seem to be on sale almost always. x.com
Suja Life is a flawed investment because it is more expensive than it looks and has a cash-flow problem. EBITDA is not FCF: cumulative free cash flow has been negative for years, and forward numbers already trail S-1 guidance. Debt is high even post-IPO, and its Slice soda would need marketing it cannot fund against Poppi, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. The 60%+ PE owner and its ownership and tax agreements favor the sponsor over common holders. It may bounce near the lockup, but is no long-term hold. … Show more
Suja Life's vertically integrated model, almost unheard of in juice, means it only needs to execute decently and pay down debt. Its high-pressure processing extends shelf life without heat, unlike private-label cold-pressed juice that spoils in about four days and tastes cooked from thermal pasteurization. Insiders, including the fund that took it private and then public, just bought roughly a quarter of the shares on the open market. x.com x.com
