Rose Celine Investments
Equity Investor
Rubrik belongs in the too-hard pile until it proves it can make money and stop diluting shareholders. @InvestingVisual notes that net losses, dilution and stock compensation as a share of revenue are shrinking each quarter, but trending in the right direction is not good enough for a large investment; continued proof over time could prompt a rethink. x.com x.comÂ
Rubrik is in a dangerous place, one deceleration away from growth in the 20s while still sub-scale. Palantir is a better company at a much better multiple and is accelerating while sustaining triple-digit growth. Rubrik would be worth a solid bet in the $60s or $70s, but on current fundamentals it shouldn't be more than a 5% position. x.comÂ
Rubrik is too expensive now against a $70-80 valuation, even though its very strong platform drives nearly 40% growth that can continue for many years as a cybersecurity and data-recovery play. x.comÂ
Rubrik's earnings show the stock will do exceptionally well over the long run, even though, as expected, it sold off 8% after hours despite the beat. x.com x.comÂ
AmpliTech Group remains too risky to own despite a promising backlog. It is highly speculative with a very small market cap, falling year-over-year revenue and dilution, and like many similar speculative companies the open question is whether the backlog converts to revenue in a timely manner. The chart may finally be near support. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's losses, high debt and rising share count make it look like one of the worst things to buy. Sales have grown sharply, but earnings and returns on capital remain negative. x.com x.comÂ
Rubrik should not be compared with SentinelOne because Rubrik generates real free cash flow. SentinelOne began decelerating before reaching $1 billion of revenue, while Rubrik is likely to exceed $2 billion and still grow at around 20% a year. Concerns about subscription billings timing miss the point; the past three years of cash generation show the trend. x.com x.comÂ
Rumble's management keeps chasing trends through heavy share dilution, making it hard to trust. Its Tether crypto deal diluted shareholders by 100 million shares and its Northern Data acquisition for data centers by 120 million. It is now offering a counterparty 50 million shares via warrants struck at $0.01 just for a commercial deal to buy its GPU services. x.comÂ
Sadot Group has increased its share count about 60-fold, and years of investors getting wrecked make it hard to justify owning. Traders seeking volatility can find plenty elsewhere with higher potential terminal value. x.comÂ
Rubrik's high switching costs and emerging AI-security demand underpin growth that looks attractively valued. At 12.9x forward EV/sales, it trades below the cybersecurity peer median relative to expected revenue growth. Subscription ARR grew 32.6% YoY and net dollar retention reached 119%. Agentic AI security adoption remains early; non-GAAP operating margin hit 7.8%, though GAAP net income remains negative partly due to stock-based compensation. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings and Archer Aviation are dead money because endless dilution has outpaced their hot stories. Ondas shareholders haven't made a buck all year as dilution inflates its market cap, and a $460M backlog, even if fully realized, is thin against a roughly $6B market cap. Archer went the same way, climbing on a red-hot story until billions in dilution left enthusiasm unable to keep pace. The biggest cost is opportunity cost in one of the hottest markets of a lifetime. x.com x.comÂ
