Rubrik is in a dangerous place, one deceleration away from growth in the 20s while still sub-scale. Palantir is a better company at a much better multiple and is accelerating while sustaining triple-digit growth. Rubrik would be worth a solid bet in the $60s or $70s, but on current fundamentals it shouldn't be more than a 5% position. x.com 

Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.com 

Rubrik's high switching costs and emerging AI-security demand underpin growth that looks attractively valued. At 12.9x forward EV/sales, it trades below the cybersecurity peer median relative to expected revenue growth. Subscription ARR grew 32.6% YoY and net dollar retention reached 119%. Agentic AI security adoption remains early; non-GAAP operating margin hit 7.8%, though GAAP net income remains negative partly due to stock-based compensation. x.com 

Rubrik belongs in the too-hard pile until it proves it can make money and stop diluting shareholders. @InvestingVisual notes that net losses, dilution and stock compensation as a share of revenue are shrinking each quarter, but trending in the right direction is not good enough for a large investment; continued proof over time could prompt a rethink. x.com  x.com 

Rubrik, Zscaler and Microsoft look very bearish: their reliance on cheap H-1B labor leaves their P&Ls exposed, and those P&Ls are expected to worsen. x.com 

Rubrik is a decent way to own cybersecurity at about 9x next-twelve-month revenue, while CrowdStrike, Cloudflare and Palo Alto Networks valuations look ridiculous. It still needs to improve margins and reduce dilution. x.com 

Being long what shrinks successful breaches beats owning Rubrik, which gets paid cleaning them up. Fixing may not stay a separate job: Astra went from 34 to 86 of 226 on FrontierCyber in one generation and Codex Security has marked 500,000 findings fixed. Recovery is harder to call, as models speed up attackers and defenders alike; no model restores a ransomed network today, as @AlokANYC's United example shows. Models could take on some restore work within five years, though how much is unclear. … Show more

Palantir, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare are top-tier companies, but their valuations may have reached bubble territory, a reason to book profits on long-term holds. Their combined market cap has grown from about $90B to $840B, and their P/E and P/S multiples price in much future growth. CrowdStrike and Cloudflare in particular trade on hopes that the agentic era, with bots charged for access and usage-based AI pricing, will make revenue explode. Trimming Cloudflare and CrowdStrike has started. … Show more

Rubrik should not be compared with SentinelOne because Rubrik generates real free cash flow. SentinelOne began decelerating before reaching $1 billion of revenue, while Rubrik is likely to exceed $2 billion and still grow at around 20% a year. Concerns about subscription billings timing miss the point; the past three years of cash generation show the trend. x.com  x.com 

Cybersecurity is a great AI play, but some valuations are getting absolutely ridiculous, and great companies are not great stocks at any price. CrowdStrike trades at 186x forward earnings and 40x sales, Cloudflare at 209x and 43x, Palo Alto Networks at 87x and 21x, and Rubrik at 327x and 11.5x. x.com