Rubrik is in a dangerous place, one deceleration away from growth in the 20s while still sub-scale. Palantir is a better company at a much better multiple and is accelerating while sustaining triple-digit growth. Rubrik would be worth a solid bet in the $60s or $70s, but on current fundamentals it shouldn't be more than a 5% position. x.com 

Rubrik is too expensive now against a $70-80 valuation, even though its very strong platform drives nearly 40% growth that can continue for many years as a cybersecurity and data-recovery play. x.com 

Rubrik makes a strong case for itself over Microsoft in cyber recovery. Rubrik's chief business officer Mike Tornincasa said a critical-infrastructure customer hit by a nation-state attack on its Active Directory had its identity provider recovered by Rubrik in 3 hours and 24 minutes. Following Microsoft's own 100-plus-step best practices, often with consultants, takes days or weeks. x.com 

Rubrik, Zscaler and Microsoft look very bearish: their reliance on cheap H-1B labor leaves their P&Ls exposed, and those P&Ls are expected to worsen. x.com 

Rubrik belongs in the too-hard pile until it proves it can make money and stop diluting shareholders. @InvestingVisual notes that net losses, dilution and stock compensation as a share of revenue are shrinking each quarter, but trending in the right direction is not good enough for a large investment; continued proof over time could prompt a rethink. x.com  x.com 

Rubrik is a decent way to own cybersecurity at about 9x next-twelve-month revenue, while CrowdStrike, Cloudflare and Palo Alto Networks valuations look ridiculous. It still needs to improve margins and reduce dilution. x.com 

Model labs threaten cybersecurity unevenly, so vendors split by how easily AI can absorb their work. Host agents, inline enforcement and shift-right operations dealing with people, live environments and adversaries stay relatively hard to absorb for now, favoring Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Fortinet and Netskope. Shift-left, checkable work such as vulnerability scanning is already hit hardest by stronger coding agents, exposing Tenable, Qualys and Rapid7. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks risks losing its growth to the AI labs rather than its existing contracts. The incremental security opportunity will be absorbed by the labs, and as legacy incumbents phase out, new AI-native companies will sidestep Palo Alto entirely in favor of tools like Claude. A Google Cloud leader described building a model to patch identified bugs; anything standing between more token consumption and the labs will be taken out, with security and design most exposed. x.com  x.com 

Rubrik should not be compared with SentinelOne because Rubrik generates real free cash flow. SentinelOne began decelerating before reaching $1 billion of revenue, while Rubrik is likely to exceed $2 billion and still grow at around 20% a year. Concerns about subscription billings timing miss the point; the past three years of cash generation show the trend. x.com  x.com 

Cybersecurity stocks such as CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are set to de-rate in 2027 as Anthropic and OpenAI aggressively productize frontier models into cybersecurity. The whole cyber industry would face competitive risk and lose budget share. Frontier models have a tangible edge over apps in cyber, and the labs need such revenue to justify their valuations. Palo Alto's Nikesh Arora and CrowdStrike's George Kurtz may talk big now; their demeanor 12-18 months from now is the test. x.com  … Show more