Rosanna Prestia
Founder & CEO of Hydra Wealth/Capital, Investment Strategist, Asymmetry & Bitcoin
Kraken Robotics' Q1 keeps the thesis on track, growing 35% at its seasonal low while reaffirming a guide that implies about 65% growth. Revenue was $21.7M, product revenue rose 50% to $13.8M, adjusted EBITDA was $3.0M and gross margin 56%, with $108.7M in cash. Guidance of $165-175M revenue and $40-50M EBITDA stands, and the $615M Covelya acquisition, on track to close at end of Q2, should reset it materially higher. It is an EBITDA-profitable underwater defense pure play. x.comÂ
Covelya could substantially lift Kraken Robotics' revenue, with projected combined gross margins of 60%. The attached slide shows $305M in estimated 2026 revenue versus $102M in 2025. That makes the stock very compelling under $3, around a $1B market cap, and a potential long-term winner, though stronger revenue growth must be demonstrated to jumpstart it; this call could be wrong. x.comÂ
Anduril's purchase of acoustic-modem maker Popoto Modem signals it plans to build its undersea fleet at scale, and more hulls mean more Kraken Robotics batteries. Kraken has supplied pressure-tolerant batteries to the Dive line since 2020 and reportedly powers Ghost Shark and Copperhead; Anduril's Rhode Island plant targets 200+ Dive LD vehicles a year, and qualifying a new battery takes years. Retail owns 79.6% of shares; a TSX uplisting by early 2027 or a US listing could draw institutions. … Show more
Kraken Robotics is not yet a buy despite falling almost 60% from its high. It should first report combined results with Covelya that preserve a credible growth and margin path, and the stock should form a base; the defence factor remains deeply out of favor. @DeepSailCapital argues it is near a bottom, expecting CAD 0.20 of 2028 EPS, mid-20s to 30s revenue growth and product ramps with Anduril. x.com x.comÂ
Kraken Robotics is the subsystem prime for underwater drones, putting $3-5 million of content per hull in reach as Anduril and navies scale uncrewed fleets. Its offering spans batteries, sonar and navigation via Covelya/Sonardyne. Funds that bought near CAD $2 two years ago have spent four months clearing their positions, and that selling is mostly past. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Kraken Robotics' organic results are strong, and adding Covelya should make the picture even better. Per Kraken Robotics, Q1 2026 revenue grew 35% year over year and 2026 guidance was reiterated. x.comÂ
Kraken Robotics' stock already prices in a lot after its Covelya acquisition, even though the deal strengthens the business. Kraken bought six subsea firms at 10x EBITDA, adding exposure to areas with durable pricing power, but the market values the combined company near three times that multiple. To earn it, Kraken must integrate them, hold about 24% EBITDA margins, convert a record order book and diversify from a customer near 45% of sales. The first consolidated quarter comes in November. … Show more
Kraken Robotics is evolving from a small sonar supplier into a global subsea defense platform and should do well heading into Anduril's eventual IPO. Catalysts over the next 6-12 months include closing the $615M Covelya acquisition with updated guidance, Anduril's July Navy CAMP Dive-XL demonstration, possible NATO subsea spending pledges, new battery capacity and contracts in H2 2026, and EU cable-security funding in Q4. Integration, dilution, debt and back-half revenue are the risks. x.comÂ
Kraken Robotics' possible Nasdaq uplisting would force institutional discovery, since its OTCQB listing is invisible to most institutional funds. Q4 earnings on April 16 may bring clarity, with H1 2026 the window, though nothing is officially confirmed. Q3 2025 product revenue rose 46% and services 85%, it booked $24M of new defense orders in March, and as a core Anduril supplier of sonar and subsea batteries it is tied to US underwater drones being deployed to clear IRGC mines. x.comÂ
Kraken Robotics is stuck in a trap as its key catalyst, the Anduril subsea ramp, is delayed by at least a year. That ramp likely needs a US battery facility and a Navy order to confirm, and the defense budget showed no large FY27 subsea-drone order. The market has also turned on drone and defense stocks after they ran ahead of a multi-year buildout, and without an uplisting from its junior exchange institutional ownership and volume stay thin. Second-half earnings may bring some support. x.comÂ
Kraken Robotics' order book is already running above full-year guidance, and new XL-UUV battery deals keep locking it in as a power supplier. Combined 2026 orders with Covelya total about $355 million against $290-$320 million guidance, and a new long-term supply agreement with a major conglomerate repeats the Anduril pattern. Q2 revenue rose 9% excluding a $1.5 million reversal, gross margin widened to 59%, and management expects Q3, the first combined quarter, to be a significant step change. … Show more