Aurora Innovation is the only Western autonomy stack hauling commercial freight at L4 with no safety driver, building the brain that ties together robotics parts like lidar, sensors and edge vision. Aurora Driver carries paid freight from Dallas to Houston in production, while Waymo Via shut down and TuSimple imploded. At a $15B market cap on pre-ramp revenue, the 70% three-month rise suggests a rerate is starting; the bull case is $14–16 over 2–3 years if commercial miles scale 10x. x.com 

Aurora Innovation should be worth at least Waymo's $120-130B valuation at scale, a future floor rather than a ceiling, making it a 10-bagger in plain sight. Per @TechEquityEng, CEO Chris Urmson, a Waymo co-founder, confirmed fully driverless L4 deployment is imminent, with hundreds of autonomous trucks on the road this year scaling to thousands next year, while Waymo has roughly 4,000 vehicles today. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Aurora Innovation's rally shows how far April's trash rally has extended. Beyond Hirschbach, it has only an MOU for someone to maybe buy 500 trucks someday, with no signed deal and no details on timing or financing. x.com 

Aurora is a high-risk, high-reward pure execution bet on industrializing its partnerships with Volvo, AUMOVIO and PACCAR. x.com 

Autonomy could expand the ride market tenfold, giving Uber a long growth runway if it does. That is the true 10x opportunity, like ridesharing's expansion of the taxi market. Uber will be a $1 trillion company by 2035. Improved autonomous-vehicle margins are possible but uncertain. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Old Dominion and Saia look well placed as solid-balance-sheet LTL consolidators: such periods have historically been good for them, and FOX reports trucking bankruptcies amid surging diesel costs. At current valuations, they look roughly equally attractive. x.com  x.com 

Ouster is a long-term hold that should deliver nice gains a year from now, backed by a wave of new deals. They include a 10-year, 100,000-unit-per-year Rev8 lidar supply agreement with Benchmark Electronics, a multi-year autonomous heavy-equipment contract with AIM Intelligent Machines and a drone-platform partnership with Seneca announced Oct 2. Q2 revenue hit $55M, up 56%, on 17,000+ sensors. The weekly chart shows a bull flag retesting support after breaking out of a multi-month base. x.com  … Show more

Uber looks cheap at a 7% free-cash-flow yield while growing non-GAAP EPS 25-30% a year. Waymo would need to hurry its autonomous fleet rollout worldwide to catch up. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is hard to call expensive: about $400B of cash and $300B of stocks mean a roughly $1T valuation pays only about $300B for the railroad, energy, insurance and operating businesses. Its insurance float is a massively underestimated source of cheap capital, and the cash is a call option on future chaos, letting it write huge checks when markets panic. Greg Abel understands its culture. Whitney Tilson, quoted via @kejca, expects it to beat the S&P 500 over five years. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Ouster looks well positioned across autonomous vehicles, robotics, drones, transportation and logistics, and industrials after a conversation with management. It has big things happening with Amazon; management said they work very closely with Amazon but gave no specifics, possibly spanning robotics, logistics, data centers and Zoox's autonomous vehicles. x.com  x.com