Aurora Innovation should be worth at least Waymo's $120-130B valuation at scale, a future floor rather than a ceiling, making it a 10-bagger in plain sight. Per @TechEquityEng, CEO Chris Urmson, a Waymo co-founder, confirmed fully driverless L4 deployment is imminent, with hundreds of autonomous trucks on the road this year scaling to thousands next year, while Waymo has roughly 4,000 vehicles today. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Aurora is a high-risk, high-reward pure execution bet on industrializing its partnerships with Volvo, AUMOVIO and PACCAR. x.com 

Aurora Innovation's slow ramp raises dilution risk as cash burn and capital needs rise. Per @bbrooklynboss, Aurora expanded its ATM capacity by $754 million to $1 billion; full issuance at $4.76 could add about 210 million shares, or 9.4%, though no immediate offering has been announced. x.com 

Aurora could become the platform for driverless trucks, with its market cap able to rise 4-5x or more if it executes. It runs the only fully driverless trucks operating commercially at scale on a major US interstate, hauling freight for a Berkshire company on live Texas lanes, with ample cash to scale. Revenue should go from about $15M this year to about $190M next as the fleet grows, then a capital-light model should lift margins. A reply notes freight carriers still keep drivers in cabs. x.com  … Show more

Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.com 

Aurora Innovation's rally shows how far April's trash rally has extended. Beyond Hirschbach, it has only an MOU for someone to maybe buy 500 trucks someday, with no signed deal and no details on timing or financing. x.com 

Autonomy could expand the ride market tenfold, giving Uber a long growth runway if it does. That is the true 10x opportunity, like ridesharing's expansion of the taxi market. Uber will be a $1 trillion company by 2035. Improved autonomous-vehicle margins are possible but uncertain. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber's network could unravel as riders go straight to Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi apps and driver earnings collapse. Uber lobbies against autonomy while telling investors it will win it, and its flagship Waymo partnership has soured. Robotaxi apps are becoming the interface to the car, which a generic broker app cannot replicate. At about 17x earnings, Uber looks overvalued when it may not exist in its current form in 17 years; 5-10x trailing earnings is the most it deserves. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Ouster is a long-term hold that should deliver nice gains a year from now, backed by a wave of new deals. They include a 10-year, 100,000-unit-per-year Rev8 lidar supply agreement with Benchmark Electronics, a multi-year autonomous heavy-equipment contract with AIM Intelligent Machines and a drone-platform partnership with Seneca announced Oct 2. Q2 revenue hit $55M, up 56%, on 17,000+ sensors. The weekly chart shows a bull flag retesting support after breaking out of a multi-month base. x.com  … Show more

Uber trades at its lowest valuation since its IPO on fears that autonomous vehicles will make it obsolete, yet it is firing on all cylinders and positioning as the AV distribution layer. It already has 14 AV partners including Waymo, and city-by-city regulation favors its global network. Its driver-rider flywheel gives it 75% US share against Lyft. Uber One's 30 million members spend twice as much and drive 40% of bookings, and free cash flow has gone from negative to strongly positive. x.com