Research & Invest
Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background
Broadcom's business is doubling with demand rising, and its $230B 2028 AI revenue outlook sits far above buy-side and sell-side expectations. It is likely to reach 20GW and $250-260B, about $30 of 2028 EPS, pointing to $400 and possibly $600 next year. A 6% drop, about $100B of value, on guidance of $34.8B versus $35B expected, a $200M miss after a beat, is absurd. x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's AI revenue could run well past its $100 billion 2027 expectation, with comments on the call pointing toward $150 billion. Management reiterated rather than raised the target because fiscal 2026 isn't finished, which is how it should work. Broadcom sits in almost every benchmark, and betting against it or CEO Hock Tan is like betting against Jobs, Jensen Huang or Lisa Su. x.com x.com
Broadcom's stronger AI business looks cheap for its growth, making it one of the best buys in the market right now. AI chip revenue rose 221% to $16.7B last quarter, yet the stock trades at 19x forward earnings and a 0.35 PEG. Management sees AI revenue near $115B in fiscal 2027 and would raise that outlook if customers secure more land and power. Anthropic is on track to be its largest custom chip customer next year. Wall Street's $529 average target implies about 60% upside. x.com
Broadcom's significant exposure to Anthropic's AI infrastructure spending and custom AI chips adds to its growth case. Annual EPS is projected to rise nearly fourfold from $8.06 LTM to $30.38 by FY2028, while the stock trades roughly 30% below its all-time high. x.com
Broadcom is more overvalued than people realize. Its forecast of $230B in revenue by 2028 has the market valuing it at roughly $2T, yet Meta already generates that much revenue and is far less cyclical. x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's custom AI chips and networking could drive earnings beyond what its valuation implies over 2-3 years. It is the favorite semiconductor opportunity now, preferred over NVIDIA without replacing it. AI semiconductor revenue is projected at about $58B in FY2026, $115B in FY2027 and potentially $230B in FY2028. At about 17x FY2027 consensus adjusted earnings, risk/reward is compelling if growth materializes; customer commitments add visibility, but delays and financing remain risks. x.com … Show more
Broadcom's forward guidance is far above Street estimates, so the after-hours selloff on a soft next quarter looks like an overreaction. It expects about $115 billion in FY27 and about $230 billion in FY28, roughly doubling each year, versus analyst models near $180 billion for FY28, and demand exceeds this outlook. It is on target to exceed $30 of EPS in FY28, about 12.2x forward earnings, and expects AI networking to grow as fast as XPUs. x.com
Broadcom's AI business is smaller and growing slower than Nvidia's networking unit alone, yet Broadcom is valued at $2.269T against Nvidia's $5.201T. Broadcom's Q2 AI semiconductor revenue rose 143% to $10.8B, with Q3 guided to $16.0B, while Nvidia's data-center networking revenue rose 199% to $14.8B. Hock Tan also said Google is diversifying away from Broadcom, and a Fubon roadmap shows Google using MediaTek for some TPUs. x.com x.com
Broadcom should recover somewhat as investors recognize its AI revenue strength. Q3 AI revenue of $16.7B beat the $15.9B estimate, and Q4 AI revenue guidance of $21.7B topped the $21.3B expected. The stock fell 7% after hours because total Q4 revenue guidance of $34.8B came in slightly below the $35.0B estimate. x.com x.com
Broadcom's custom-chip share gains should support long-term growth even if AI spending grows more slowly than expected. Custom chips are clearly gaining share and likely to keep doing so. At 10.9 times 2028 earnings using the low end of management's guidance of at least $30 EPS, Broadcom looks very compelling here. If that guidance holds and growth remains reasonable beyond 2028, the stock is clearly undervalued. x.com
Broadcom's Jalapeño chip deal with OpenAI is already priced in and margin dilutive. OpenAI guides to about 30 GW by 2030; at 30-40% Jalapeño, that is 9-12 GW, matching the 10 GW deal signed in October 2025. Selling finished chips, Broadcom books full ASPs but fronts wafers, HBM and other costs, about $15 billion per GW or $25-45 billion a year, at 50-60% margins at best. FY27 guidance already tops $100 billion; the bull case is maybe $120 billion. Broadcom even lends OpenAI the build money. … Show more
Broadcom could roughly triple to $900+ per share if 30x is applied to Hock Tan's expectation of over $30 of EPS in FY2028, versus about $350 today. ASICs are expected to take about 25% of the AI accelerator market by 2030 as inference explodes, and management has consistently delivered. There is no guidance beyond 2028, and near-triple-digit AI chip growth is hard to sustain, but growth should remain strong. x.com x.com
