Campbell's outlook is deteriorating. It cut its dividend from 39 cents to 25 cents, lowered guidance and said 2027 looks even worse. x.com 

Consumer staples are a lose-lose here because they are already overvalued at 26x forward earnings versus a 22.7x five-year average, the highest since just before the tech bubble burst. With stocks this richly valued, there is little left to rotate into if the economy weakens next year, and the healthcare rotation is well under way. If the economy holds, high rates hurt staples; if it weakens, they are too expensive to hold up even with rate cuts, except perhaps Campbell's. x.com  x.com 

Campbell's is turning from Big Food into Small Food because pricing can no longer offset cost inflation. Every line item that matters got worse: 630 basis points of cost inflation headwinds met only 110 basis points of price, which once again hurt volume by 60 basis points. The stock is at a 23-year low and the company has halted buybacks. x.com  x.com 

Campbell's should keep falling toward a buyout point near $12 a share, where a market cap of about $4 billion would price in bankruptcy. Its BBB- rating with a negative outlook amounts to rating agencies flagging bankruptcy risk, so institutions and hedge funds will sell or short until it gets there. With no near-term debt due, it would be bought out rather than go bankrupt, as Kenvue was, while Red Robin and Wendy's follow the same path. Buybacks and dividends mean little given its leverage. … Show more