Alva - Your AI Investing Agent

Roger

Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor

14 Apr, 00:22Latest

Campbell's should keep falling toward a buyout point near $12 a share, where a market cap of about $4 billion would price in bankruptcy. Its BBB- rating with a negative outlook amounts to rating agencies flagging bankruptcy risk, so institutions and hedge funds will sell or short until it gets there. With no near-term debt due, it would be bought out rather than go bankrupt, as Kenvue was, while Red Robin and Wendy's follow the same path. Buybacks and dividends mean little given its leverage. x.com

CPB

13 Apr, 22:33

Campbell's still has 33-50% downside to a $10-12 fair value, where assets roughly cover debt and equity is wiped out. With $15.3 billion of assets, $7.1 billion of debt and $4.1 billion of other liabilities, its $6 billion market cap is still about $2 billion too high, even if brand assets hold their value. A BBB- rating with a negative outlook sits at the edge of speculative grade, where things deteriorate fast. Near $10-12 it could become a buyout candidate. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

CPB

Ask Alva about this thesis

Ask Alva about this thesis