Neoclouds' commodity economics and reliance on repeated debt and equity issuance could turn lost market confidence into a rapid financing collapse. If Nebius shares stay below $180.31 at maturity, two 2031 and 2033 converts could require about $4.3 billion in cash repayment or refinancing at higher rates; the underlying ChatGPT debt table was not checked. CoreWeave's 9.625% July 2032 bond yields about 14.3% in the chart. IREN faces the same capital-dependent risk. This won't end well. x.com  … Show more

Strategy's new capital framework marks a shift to selling bitcoin at a loss to cover debts, at best a graceful unwind and more likely a head fake before lower. Having issued perpetual preferreds and converts against an asset with no cash flow, and with more common dilution untenable, it becomes a permanent bitcoin seller whose stack shrinks each year. Saylor sits on about $14B of unrealized losses, and 1920s investment trusts that sold holdings to buy back shares entered a death spiral. x.com  … Show more

CoreWeave is back to funding itself with debt: its shares sank on a $3 billion convertible note offering. x.com 

Campbell's should keep falling toward a buyout point near $12 a share, where a market cap of about $4 billion would price in bankruptcy. Its BBB- rating with a negative outlook amounts to rating agencies flagging bankruptcy risk, so institutions and hedge funds will sell or short until it gets there. With no near-term debt due, it would be bought out rather than go bankrupt, as Kenvue was, while Red Robin and Wendy's follow the same path. Buybacks and dividends mean little given its leverage. … Show more

Nebius's proposed $3.75B convertible notes offering is a negative for shareholders. Per Trade The News, Nebius announced a proposed private offering of $3.75B of convertible senior notes. x.com  x.com