Hated Moats Investor
Contrarian Quality-Stock Research, 25 Years in Markets, GOOGL Since 2011
Amazon's AWS grew 39% on $46 billion of quarterly revenue, outweighing concern over the stock's 10% after-hours decline. Amazon is a buy below $200. x.com
Amazon ranks among the top three stocks to hold because it dominates e-commerce, cloud, logistics and more. Concentrating in a few industry leaders that people actually use beats spreading money across 20 names. x.com
Amazon is one of the market's great opportunity-cost traps. After its earnings and historic capex spending, the stock risks moving sideways for a long period, locking up capital that could earn much better returns elsewhere. x.com
Amazon's profits should explode once capex settles because it is replacing human labor with AI and robots while bringing in record revenue. Enterprises will get more output per dollar from electricity and compute than from salaries, so the value of human labor trends toward zero. Amazon laying off employees while raising capex and posting record revenue signals that shift, which makes owning the companies doing the replacing the way to stay ahead. x.com x.com x.com
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.com
Amazon does not look like a huge AI winner based on its stock chart. Replacing American workers with H-1B hires who may not know how to maintain what was built is a further concern. x.com
Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Amazon's logistics network protects its investment case against AI agents that could hurt its platform: agents cannot rebuild its delivery infrastructure, which has reportedly become America's largest parcel carrier. x.com
Amazon looks set to rally into its Q1 report and then fall again, because heavy non-AWS investment weighs on operating income and the stock works in harvest years, not investment years. A clean operating income guide needs a huge AWS beat to flow through, and people already put out very high AWS numbers. Layoffs help, but not enough against data-center and fulfillment efficiency comps. It is a crowded long that has crushed Microsoft on relative performance, with market caps approaching parity. … Show more
AWS's rapid growth in a huge business makes the long-term outlook decisively bullish for Amazon and the AI ecosystem. AWS revenue grew 39.3% year over year in September 2026; management guides for growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028. Amazon is always very conservative with guidance, making that AI outlook doubly bullish. x.com x.com x.com