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Anirban Mahanti

Senior Analyst at AlphaTarget, Former Motley Fool Australia Portfolio Manager

28 Apr, 10:58Latest

ServiceNow's price bakes in something extreme: a reverse DCF implies only about 6% annual FCF growth for a decade. That needs LLM platforms to disintermediate it, a ~$12B M&A spree to sink per-share value, and AI to fail to lift margins. Yet subscription revenue grows ~20% cc, the Now Assist target rose 50% to $1.5B, half of net new business is non-seat-based, and cross-sell is firing. Bears have fair points: ~275bps organic cRPO deceleration, Armis at ~26x sales, and SBC near 15% of revenue. x.com x.com x.com x.com

NOW

Jordan

Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Joel

Long-Term Growth Investor & Options Trader

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's AI contract growth and improving free cash flow margin make the 18% selloff excessive and its shares a massive discount among leading enterprise AI companies. AI net-new ACV rose 65%; its 2026 AI ACV target rose to $1.7B, up 70% from the start of the year. Adjusted operating margin slipped to 32.5% from 33.5%, but free cash flow margin rose to 20% from 17.5%. Acquisition costs, stock compensation and severance largely drove the GAAP decline. x.com x.com x.com

Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

28 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's seat business is being cannibalized faster than AI deals can replace it. Next-quarter cRPO growth is guided to 18.5%, down from 20.5%, while subscription growth was 24.5% two quarters ago; agentic usage on its platform is up 13x. Management points to AI deal value heading to $1.7bn, against a roughly $16bn subscription business. The slowdown leaves more pain ahead. Underweight, $90 target. x.com x.com

Stephanie Link

Chief Investment Strategist & Portfolio Manager at Hightower, Contributor to CNBC

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's third-quarter subscription revenue, cRPO and operating-margin beats make its double-digit selloff look overdone. After a 77% rise from April lows, it needed a big beat and raise; lower fourth-quarter cRPO guidance and back-loaded implications for $30-$32 billion in subscription growth by 2030 leave the stock in show-me mode. x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

23h ago

NOW

Cost fears and CRPO misunderstandings caused ServiceNow's selloff. The stock is definitely undervalued; the market's reaction is ridiculous. x.com

LongGameEquity

Long-Term Investor, AI & Software

21h ago

NOW

ServiceNow's costs are rising far faster than revenue without the RPO acceleration management promised. Q3 revenue rose 21%, while total cost of revenue climbed 56% and net income fell 45%; stock compensation appears to be using about half of free cash flow. The selloff looks deserved, though the shares are now closer to fair value. Sustainable margins and measurable returns remain the test. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

From Growth To Value

Founder of Potential Multibaggers/Best Anchor Stocks

23 Apr

NOW

ServiceNow's after-hours drop reflects guidance, not the quarter, and its sloppy shift away from seat-based pricing is an opportunity for multi-year holders. Q1 had 22% subscription and 22.5% cRPO growth, and the 2026 AI target rose 50% to $1.5B. The $7.75B Armis deal temporarily cuts margins, and Q2 cRPO guides to 18% as Middle East conflict delays large deals. Over half of new deals are not seat-based, pressuring margins for years. Buybacks are warranted, and the stock is already down 50%+. … Show more

Stocker-Man

Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal

23 Jul

NOW

ServiceNow remains a long-term bull case, and short-term profit pressure from the Armis acquisition could offer an entry. Revenue grew about 24% with healthy cRPO and AI adoption, but GAAP operating margin fell to 4.1% from 8.4% and quarterly free cash flow margin was about 16%. Armis is expected to cut 200 basis points from full-year FCF margin, yet management reaffirmed 35%; delivering that and showing the pressure is integration-related is the condition to watch. x.com x.com

Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan

Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's growth and deteriorating margins do not justify its valuation. It grew 3% quarter over quarter against a 107x trailing GAAP P/E, and its margins continue to deteriorate. It remains a great company, but is mostly saturated relative to that valuation. x.com x.com x.com

Yimin X

Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker

15 Sep

NOW

ServiceNow has room for valuation expansion. Based on the historical link between its revenue growth and EV/Sales, 11.9x NTM sales is fair for a 20% three-year revenue CAGR, implying $205 a share, 44% above $142.35. Q2 subscription revenue rose 23% in constant currency to $3.9B, beating the top of guidance, and AI contract value crossed $1B. The offset: GAAP operating income fell from $358M to $162M and gross margin slipped on hyperscaler and frontier-model costs. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

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