Vital Farms' plan to narrow price gaps with other outdoor-access eggs is basically an admission that its premium brand has been damaged, deepening a bad negative feedback loop. Management says it is acting with urgency to restore volume growth by cutting the premium to reaccelerate sales velocity, and the stock fell 22% premarket. Its premium positioning leaves it highly exposed to the social-media backlash it failed to take seriously; the problem is not unresolvable but looks hard to fix. x.com  … Show more

Vital Farms might be in serious trouble as egg prices fall and its premium over regular eggs erodes, after a badly timed buyback and expansion. It drew its revolver and took an expensive Silver Point term loan that will crush free cash flow, and mothballed its new plant. EBITDA of $0-10M this year, against an EV over $600M, does not cover interest. Even normalized, it trades at 10-15x EBITDA for a commodity, versus single digits for Cal-Maine. Only another big bird-flu outbreak would rescue it. … Show more

Beyond Meat looks weak because real meat beats fake meat. x.com 

Short sellers are pressing Vital Farms hard: short interest reached 32.9% of shares outstanding, up more than 10 percentage points in the last 30 days, as shorts relentlessly hammer losers. x.com