Thierry from arvy
CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing
Air Liquide's record EUR 5.5B investment backlog is signed contracts waiting to become earnings, the next leg of growth before it reaches the P&L. Q1 sales rose 3.4% in a flat industrial economy. At 27.3x forward earnings it trades 17% above its 10-year median, but that median came with zero volume growth; if volumes return, earnings accelerate, and the low FCF yield reflects capex for contracted double-digit-IRR projects. Expensive against history, cheap against the turn. x.com x.comÂ
Linde and Air Liquide are both strong ways to own industrial gases, a very good and beautiful industry. Linde wins on efficiency and shareholder returns, with better margins, more aggressive management and flawless execution in the US market it dominates. Air Liquide is more conservative but incredibly steady, investing heavily in R&D and the energy transition, a peace-of-mind stock that also offers French investors free shares and loyalty bonuses. x.comÂ
Durable demand makes these eight companies attractive at forward earnings multiples below their historical medians. Vistra has long power deals; ASML expects demand above capacity in 2027-28; GE Vernova's turbines are sold out through 2028. Eaton expects data-center deliveries from 2028. Waste Management leads garbage collection; American Tower has $23B in scheduled rent, Linde $64B in commitments, and BWX Technologies an $8.4B backlog backed by Navy demand. GE Vernova's multiple is still high. … Show more
