Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
Linde and Air Liquide are both strong ways to own industrial gases, a very good and beautiful industry. Linde wins on efficiency and shareholder returns, with better margins, more aggressive management and flawless execution in the US market it dominates. Air Liquide is more conservative but incredibly steady, investing heavily in R&D and the energy transition, a peace-of-mind stock that also offers French investors free shares and loyalty bonuses. x.comÂ
Air Liquide's record EUR 5.5B investment backlog is signed contracts waiting to become earnings, the next leg of growth before it reaches the P&L. Q1 sales rose 3.4% in a flat industrial economy. At 27.3x forward earnings it trades 17% above its 10-year median, but that median came with zero volume growth; if volumes return, earnings accelerate, and the low FCF yield reflects capex for contracted double-digit-IRR projects. Expensive against history, cheap against the turn. x.com x.comÂ
Linde's premium valuation still offers an asymmetric bet: boredom if volumes stay flat, a 15% IRR if they return. At 29.9x forward earnings versus a 26.5x ten-year median, it sits at the top of its range, but even if the multiple grinds back, the drag costs only a few points a year against roughly 10% compounding. Since 2019 EPS compounded 14% despite six years of macro headwinds, and over 33 years Linde beat competitors on sales, EPS and dividend growth by about four points a year. x.com x.comÂ
Durable demand makes these eight companies attractive at forward earnings multiples below their historical medians. Vistra has long power deals; ASML expects demand above capacity in 2027-28; GE Vernova's turbines are sold out through 2028. Eaton expects data-center deliveries from 2028. Waste Management leads garbage collection; American Tower has $23B in scheduled rent, Linde $64B in commitments, and BWX Technologies an $8.4B backlog backed by Navy demand. GE Vernova's multiple is still high. … Show more
Altria, Johnson & Johnson, Waste Management, TJX, Linde, Costco and Quest Diagnostics add defense to a portfolio, scoring highest among S&P 500 stocks on an antifragility screen of low volatility, strong free cash flow, minimal debt and stable earnings. All are also trending up this year, with momentum scores above 75; Altria scores 100 on antifragility and J&J 99. x.comÂ
Linde, the dominant global supplier of semiconductor-grade helium, stands to surge as the Strait of Hormuz conflict chokes helium supply. A third of world helium supply is stuck in the strait, and Qatar's Ras Laffan, one of only two plants making semiconductor-grade helium, was hit by missiles in early March and may take years to rebuild. The largest industrial gas companies have told chipmakers they cannot guarantee supply, putting a speed limit on AI. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
