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CF Industries looks cheap against its earnings, trading at 10x earnings and 13x next year's while the industry usually gets 13x. Fair value is $142.57–181.45, based on 13x mid-cycle EPS of $12.46, give or take 12%, versus $136.77 now. This is a levels-only view off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
CF Industries is the top stock in agriculture, a sector drawing key inflows while tech struggles. It broke out on volume about 80% above average, and the pattern targets $160 or more. x.com
Cava looks like a decent short because rising input costs are about to hit just as consumers get squeezed. Higher energy, urea and fertilizer prices will almost certainly raise food costs, while the stock trades at 114x forward earnings for about 25% expected EPS growth over five years. Much of the recent rally looks like a short squeeze that is likely nearly or already done. x.com x.com
Fair Isaac's selloff looks technically overdone and will probably push the company to double down on buybacks, making it a short-term bounce trade. The longer-term case is less compelling. x.com x.com x.com
Kioxia is very shareholder friendly at about 4x earnings, choosing to buy back stock rather than spend on capex. Per @jukan05, it plans to repurchase up to 30 million shares, 5.5% of shares outstanding, for up to ¥800 billion between August 3 and October 30, alongside April-September operating profit guidance of ¥3.16 trillion and a 3-for-1 split. A miss against expectations would matter more if the stock were still at ¥100,000 rather than near ¥49,000. x.com x.com