GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
CF Industries looks cheap against its earnings, trading at 10x earnings and 13x next year's while the industry usually gets 13x. Fair value is $142.57–181.45, based on 13x mid-cycle EPS of $12.46, give or take 12%, versus $136.77 now. This is a levels-only view off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
CF Industries is a buyback monster trading at about 7x this year's earnings. x.com
CF Industries is the top stock in agriculture, a sector drawing key inflows while tech struggles. It broke out on volume about 80% above average, and the pattern targets $160 or more. x.com
Cava looks like a decent short because rising input costs are about to hit just as consumers get squeezed. Higher energy, urea and fertilizer prices will almost certainly raise food costs, while the stock trades at 114x forward earnings for about 25% expected EPS growth over five years. Much of the recent rally looks like a short squeeze that is likely nearly or already done. x.com x.com
