Philip
Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor
Palantir's commercial growth is shifting toward partner-led distribution through an expanded alliance with PwC to accelerate enterprise-AI deployment in M&A and ERP modernization. It also named Nebius its preferred sovereign-AI infrastructure partner. Its AIP solves real enterprise pain points around security, permissions and workflow integration, driving triple-digit US commercial growth, while its defense moat, 84%-85% gross margins and GAAP profitability add support. x.comÂ
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.comÂ
Nebius steps up to top-tier enterprise demand as Palantir names it its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, bringing Nebius compute and inference inside Palantir's enterprise perimeter. First-half revenue reached $981 million, and management signaled up to $9 billion of potential customer prepayments amid a tight GPU market. Per management, the bottleneck is building capacity, not demand, so revenue should surge as capacity comes online. A reported Meta deal adds validation. x.comÂ
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir's valuation premium is shrinking because it is no longer the only player in defense AI. Its 2024-25 run at hundreds of times earnings rested on being first and only there, but frontier labs it once partnered with now sign directly with the Pentagon, and OpenAI and Anthropic are moving into forward-deployed engineering for enterprises. CEO Alex Karp's attack on the labs reflects that pressure. Opportunity returns once revenue and profit scale up and the valuation is digested. x.comÂ
Palantir's partnership with Nebius is a big step toward running customers' AI in production. Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, and per Nebius its compute and inference endpoints will run inside the Palantir enterprise perimeter, giving commercial customers control over compute, data and models adapted with their own data. Running AI at scale needs much more than bare metal and a frontier model to be production ready. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir is worth holding and buying on every dip as AIP adoption explodes and commercial revenue surges on top of its government backbone. Software is eating the enterprise, and every Palantir dip gets bought. x.comÂ
Palantir's multiple is too high to pay, so the stock is likely to be a source of funds for two-plus years. That holds even if @DivesTech is right that the narrative of Anthropic eating Palantir's lunch is wrong and Palantir sits at the epicenter of AI leaders. x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ