Northwise Project
Fundamental Investor, AI, Fintech, E-Commerce & Emerging Markets
Salesforce enters the AI debate from a position of strength, because large enterprises prioritize control, compliance and integration over raw innovation speed. Its footprint across data, workflows and governance lets Agentforce and Data 360 grow into a structured environment for deploying enterprise AI. The contest for the governed AI platform layer is narrowing to a battle of incumbents, with Microsoft as the main rival. x.comÂ
Salesforce's 30% drawdown overstates the AI threat, because it could become the governed execution layer for enterprise AI rather than a casualty. Agents need permissioned data access, memory, audit trails and system integration that Salesforce already supplies, and replacing it takes years. Agentforce and Data Cloud ARR topped $2.9 billion, up over 200%. Buybacks compound even moderate outcomes if share count falls net of stock compensation. The risk is seat losses outpacing agent monetization. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce's strong free cash flow and healthy balance sheet support its setup as enterprise AI adoption, Agentforce and AI-driven workflow automation advance. Its earnings gap on four times average volume has been followed by a tightening formation. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft's salesforce and governed platform unlock AI spending at conservative firms. Faster enterprise than consumer AI adoption makes it effectively the only pure play. M365 Commercial may top 20% growth next quarter, sooner than expected on tonight's guide; GitHub resegmentation helps, but it should do so this year anyway. Azure and M365, two-thirds of revenue, should grow above 50% and 20% and may accelerate. $24-25 CY27 EPS remains achievable, implying under 22x forward earnings. x.com … Show more
Salesforce is exposed to AI-native rivals aiming to own the sale itself rather than build a better CRM. Upstarts such as Attio, Monaco and Rox can capture the decision traces behind closed deals, a learning loop Claude cannot rebuild from Salesforce's fields. Its schema is more tax than foundation: relationship-driven work like recruiting and VC does not fit it, and young startups cannot be served profitably. Its 150k customers won't churn soon, but new AI-native firms may never install it. … Show more
Bloomberg Intelligence sees fragmented enterprise-software markets as runway for large vendors to buy share, enter adjacent areas and strengthen AI, data and platforms. Serious software M&A is expected: Guidewire's $1.7B purchase of hyperexponential adds another deal after Salesforce's acquisition of Braze, which opened the gates. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce owns the customer data AI needs to be valuable, so the death-of-software trade is aging badly. Hardware and software climb together, and this quarter showed the AI benefit cannot be captured on the chip side alone. Per @qualtrim, Salesforce now earns $10.96 a share at 18x earnings, versus $5.56 at 39x two years ago. x.comÂ
Salesforce faces real AI threats: more competition, margin headwinds from compute costs and disruption risk for businesses like Tableau and Service Cloud. Agentforce is showing some momentum, and the stock felt oversold earlier, but it is not attractive at current levels. x.comÂ
Salesforce's poor M&A is literally half the reason its multiple stays low. Slack and Informatica are cited as examples, with Braze raised as a question; AI making Tableau obsolete in a few years would be a separate risk, not itself poor M&A. x.comÂ
Microsoft's hold on enterprise software and the cloud running AI makes it one of tech's best positions to own. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 19% on Azure and the AI stack, while operating income rose 21% and net income 32%. Grade: A. x.comÂ
Salesforce might be dead as intelligence becomes an abundant commodity, though it can argue it has distribution. Claude, OpenAI and open-weight models such as Kimi, Qwen and DeepSeek are in a price fight to zero, so years of developer work no longer form a moat. The new moats are trust, distribution and data, especially data behind corporate firewalls, in hospitals or otherwise hard to get. x.comÂ
Salesforce is set to make a lot of money from AI as the market realizes it may be an AI winner, not a victim. Agentforce ARR reached $1.5 billion, up 240% year over year, and Claude will become Agentforce's default model through an Anthropic partnership, with secure CRM data access and 37 prebuilt sales skills. Contracted revenue expected over the next 12 months reached $33.5 billion, up 14%, its fastest bookings growth in four years. x.comÂ
