RLI's investment income keeps rising as it rolls 1% bonds into 5.3% bonds, lifting the risk-free yield on its portfolio every day, yet the stock is trading down. Its $250M buyback would also save more than $12M in dividend payments, funding future increases. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is worth accumulating because its insurance float and $324.9B Treasury bill pile pay it to wait for an opportunity, so higher rates bring income and leverage over whoever runs out of cash first. It passes the Second Paycheck Test at unmatched scale, with $177.5B of float. Rate gains alone are small, about $642M after tax per quarter point, and GEICO's underwriting profit fell 45%. Management bought about $4.5B of stock near 1.4x book; at 1.48x, accumulate, don't chase. x.com  … Show more

Root looks expensive at 16x next year's earnings when insurers usually get 12x. Fair value is about $29.78-37.90, or 12x next year's expected $2.82 EPS give or take 12%, so the stock trades about 22% above the top of that range. The view rests on reported earnings and estimates only, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Kinsale Capital's margin beat may mark the bottom for beaten-up insurance stocks. Although its underwriting has historically not been best in class, it knocked margins out of the park this quarter despite gross written premiums falling 5% year over year, leaving sell-side analysts and shorts in shambles. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is hard to call expensive: about $400B of cash and $300B of stocks mean a roughly $1T valuation pays only about $300B for the railroad, energy, insurance and operating businesses. Its insurance float is a massively underestimated source of cheap capital, and the cash is a call option on future chaos, letting it write huge checks when markets panic. Greg Abel understands its culture. Whitney Tilson, quoted via @kejca, expects it to beat the S&P 500 over five years. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Property and casualty insurers such as W.R. Berkley should benefit as rates stay higher for longer, because their short-duration insurance float reprices higher, as in the 2022 hiking cycle. The Fed just hiked for the first time in over three years, while drone strikes shut Saudi Arabia's Petroline, which moved about 4 million barrels a day, sending Brent up 8.7% to $104.61 and the 10-year yield to 4.97%. That is a structural repricing of energy risk, and rate-cut bets will get run over. x.com 

Root is extremely cheap, with nearly all the downside priced in but barely any of the potential upside. Net of cash, its enterprise value is just $670M, or 0.47x premiums in force, and it has generated $61M of net income so far in 2026. x.com 

Lemonade is one of the best buys in the market because its AI model lets it scale customers, products and revenue without scaling headcount. In-force premium grew 32% YoY, its tenth straight quarter of acceleration, and doubled over three years as headcount fell; revenue tripled while gross profit grew 10x. Up to 50% discounts for miles driven on Tesla FSD show an edge traditional insurers can't copy. It should be EBITDA profitable in Q4 2026, yet the stock fell 50% in four months. x.com  x.com 

Lemonade is reducing transparency on a key indicator of whether it can scale efficiently. Earnings reports once showed in-force premium versus opex, then switched to premium versus employee count, presumably as opex rose, and now show premium alone. Investors are tiring of waiting for EBITDA profitability, and the missing comparative metrics give less insight into how Lemonade gets there. The stock had run ahead into earnings, so a reset was due without a blowout. x.com  x.com