Finance Jack
Equity Research
ServiceNow could reach about $258 a share by 2030, roughly 181% above $91.94, if it comes anywhere close to management's guidance. Management guided to $30-32 billion of 2030 subscription revenue and a Rule of 60-plus. Assuming about $31 billion of total revenue, growth slowing to 18% and a 43% free-cash-flow margin gives $13.3 billion of FCF; at a conservative 20x unadjusted FCF, near today's 20.7x, that is a $266 billion market cap. x.comÂ
ServiceNow keeps selling more to existing customers over time, one of the biggest reasons to be bullish long term. Its 2011 customer cohort's annual contract value grew from an indexed $100 to $3,730 by Q3 2026, or 37.3x, even including customer losses. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's growth and deteriorating margins do not justify its valuation. It grew 3% quarter over quarter against a 107x trailing GAAP P/E, and its margins continue to deteriorate. It remains a great company, but is mostly saturated relative to that valuation. x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's third-quarter subscription revenue, cRPO and operating-margin beats make its double-digit selloff look overdone. After a 77% rise from April lows, it needed a big beat and raise; lower fourth-quarter cRPO guidance and back-loaded implications for $30-$32 billion in subscription growth by 2030 leave the stock in show-me mode. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's AI business undercuts fears that AI will put it out of business. Its AI revenues are expected to surpass $1.5 billion by the end of 2026 and reach $9.6 billion in 2030. The stock rose 9% back to $137 a share. x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's guidance growth is set to fall by another fifth next quarter, a poor trajectory rather than a buying opportunity after earnings. x.comÂ
ServiceNow ranks among the favored stock picks in a list of top ideas. x.comÂ
ServiceNow looks set up for a move now, framed simply as: if not now, then when? x.comÂ
ServiceNow's costs are rising far faster than revenue without the RPO acceleration management promised. Q3 revenue rose 21%, while total cost of revenue climbed 56% and net income fell 45%; stock compensation appears to be using about half of free cash flow. The selloff looks deserved, though the shares are now closer to fair value. Sustainable margins and measurable returns remain the test. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow is a great business at a great price, now at its lowest valuation multiple ever. Revenue has doubled from $7 billion to $14 billion since 2022 while the stock sits roughly where it was then. SaaS narrative headwinds persist, but the business is doing great, and once sentiment shifts the shares could trade significantly higher. Unlike Nike, whose stock rightly reflects a declining business, ServiceNow is still growing. x.com x.com x.comÂ