Finance Jack
Equity Research
Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.comÂ
Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre should benefit from business-friendly policies, which will only strengthen the moats both companies already had. x.comÂ
South American political unpredictability keeps investors from rewarding MercadoLibre's excellent fundamentals. Today's selloff illustrates that risk, despite the strength of the business. x.com x.comÂ
Today's fundamentals and long growth runways make Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre among the market's most compelling and mispriced opportunities for patient capital. Their short-term outlook shifts mostly with FX volatility and fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's commerce and fintech revenue growth underpins the view that its shares are undervalued at current prices. The attached chart shows quarterly commerce services revenue reaching $4.3 billion and fintech revenue $4.4 billion in June 2026, up from $769 million and $467 million in March 2021. x.comÂ
Political uncertainty and Amazon competition have held MercadoLibre's stock back despite a humming business. The company is great and the stock deserves to turn, but at roughly 45 times earnings and only about 12% gained over five years, it has remained a difficult stock to own. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sea Limited's strong execution and regained management trust make the beaten-down stock a buy here. After a rough two years following Covid, it faces less competition in its home markets than Amazon or MercadoLibre face in theirs, yet its stock trades very low. Existing holders should be loading up or question their conviction; long-term margins remain uncertain for both Sea and MercadoLibre. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings have massive runways and have thrived across political backdrops, so they do not need tax cuts or deregulation to keep winning. Both have performed extremely well in Brazil under Lula since 2023, even in a fragile macro backdrop. The election-driven selloff left these cream-of-the-crop businesses at lower multiples, and more near-term selloffs are possible. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre and Sea look like stocks long-term investors should be adding if oil is why they are down. Oil prices may affect such businesses today, but they are a cyclical input, not a structural cost increase, and will not matter in a normalized environment. The broader selling looks like a general emerging-markets sell-off. x.comÂ