VanquishTrader
Options Prop Trading Firm
AppLovin's share price has fallen much faster than its business, so the market is pricing in moat erosion the data has not shown. Q2 revenue still grew 53% to about $1.9B at an EBITDA margin above 80%, and Q3 guidance of $2.1B implies 48% growth. MAX publisher earnings grew double digits sequentially and its share of publisher waterfalls held steady. At about 15x FY27 earnings, the real test is whether AXON works in commerce beyond gaming, and Q3 must show the model delay was real. x.com
AppLovin's near-20% drop reprices consistency, not business quality, making it an opportunity. Revenue grew 53% and EBITDA 58% at an 84% margin; the small miss came from slower model improvement, not weaker advertiser demand, and a stronger model launched after quarter-end is driving Q3 reacceleration. Consumer spend is 28% above the Q4 peak and the SEC overhang is gone. Risks: cash conversion fell to 54%, buybacks nearly halved, consumer growth is concentrated and guidance anchors near 30%. x.com
AppLovin has entered a value zone, and whether it is undervalued hinges on e-commerce opening a second growth curve for its AXON ad engine. Shares are down nearly 60% though Q2 revenue rose 53% at an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin, and P/E is about 23x versus a ~50x historical median. Management sees non-gaming as 5-10x gaming, and early e-commerce advertisers scaled spend without CAC worsening. Sustained 30%+ growth could earn 30-35x; if e-commerce fails, 15-20x. x.com
AppLovin's push from mobile-gaming ads into e-commerce is gaining real traction, and the stock has a wide base of support with a gap above. E-commerce ad spend hit a record $1.28 billion in Q2, 28% above the usually stronger Q4 peak. Q2 revenue grew 53% to $1.92 billion with an EPS beat and about 84% EBITDA margin, and Q3 guidance of 46-48% growth frames the miss as a timing issue already resolving. Management bought back about $551 million of stock. x.com
AppLovin needs a very clean quarter to rebuild confidence. Investors question how much market-share runway its gaming ad business has left and how sustainable its very high margins are, and last quarter's model-upgrade cadence issues raised new execution concerns. Gaming ads must remain the central growth engine, since e-commerce will not be big enough for a while. x.com x.com
AppLovin's roughly 60% drop in 2026 has reset expectations while revenue still grows over 50%. Last quarter revenue rose 53% to $1.92B at an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin. The moat is AXON's feedback loop: more ads bring more data and better predictions, at a scale rivals struggle to copy. Risks are real: e-commerce must prove itself, and Unity is a legal and competitive threat. It is on a falling-knife watchlist, not a buy just because it fell; 2030 cases are $225 bear, $600 base, $1,000 bull. … Show more
AppLovin is priced for major deceleration: it trades at 24x earnings versus the S&P 500's 26x despite 57% EPS growth last quarter, showing the market doubts its growth is sustainable. Management targets long-term growth of 20-30%; if it comes reasonably close, the stock is very undervalued, and intrinsic value growth alone would produce substantial returns even if the multiple contracted further. x.com
AppLovin faces a long repair after its trend broke, even though its fundamentals rank in the top 30 of 2,000 stocks. Shares fell almost 60% from above $745 to near $315 after an August report, with revenue up 53% and an 84% EBITDA margin, narrowly missed its guidance midpoint, cracking the endless-beat assumption behind its multiple. Price sits below a falling 200-day average, and holders waiting for break-even must clear first. If the trend turns, 16.8x earnings for 37% growth would be rare. … Show more
AppLovin's selloff prices in a significant slowdown while the underlying numbers remain incredible, making the risk/reward interesting. Q2 revenue rose 53% to $1.92B at an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin, and Q3 guidance implies 46-48% growth. It generates billions in free cash flow on a ~$100B market cap, has only ~$700M of net debt and buys back shares. Expanding into e-commerce could greatly enlarge its market; slower AI model gains and competition from Meta and Alphabet are the risks. x.com
AppLovin is dirt cheap at roughly 13-15x 2027 EBIT, with the market treating it like a dying gaming ad company and ignoring its e-commerce potential. Rising AXON Pixel data shows the e-commerce story is not priced in, while the full bear case is. Buybacks make the multiple a few percent cheaper still, and growth could accelerate within the next year. The long requires high conviction and trust in management to succeed in new segments. x.com x.com x.com
AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.com
AppLovin is a growth company priced like a value stock as its ecommerce business accelerates. AXON pixel growth rose from 1–3% week over week after the summer launch to 5.1% and then 11.7%, up 25% month over month, as a deliberately slow ramp let it tune models before the holidays. Revenue growth could reach 51–52% in 2026 and 35–40% in 2027, above sell-side estimates of 47.8% and 26.7%. On those numbers, with flat margins, it trades at 13.5x 2027 EPS. x.com
