Alibaba is no longer worth owning when better opportunities exist. The case for it as a China hedge was a macro feeling applied to a single company, and it ignored Jack Ma being yanked away and a lack of cloud growth while leaning on share buybacks and looking too cheap to ignore. Despite its discount to US companies, other stocks, such as GitLab and Airbnb, now look much more compelling. x.com 

Alibaba is not a cheap Amazon, and cheap can stay cheap for a long time. It trades at 2015 prices, while since 2015 Amazon has gone from $34 to $250, Alphabet from $39 to $344 and QQQ from $100 to about $770, eleven years of missed compounding. Chinese companies should not be assumed to follow the playbook of American tech giants, just as Tencent is not Alphabet and BYD is not Tesla. x.com 

Alibaba is a contrarian trade because accelerating demand for relatively cheaper compute is very underappreciated, and China's cloud market is still in its infancy versus the US. Alibaba is a consensus short as upside from closed-source AI looks illusory. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba is uninvestable as long as the Chinese Communist Party can touch its profits. That lesson came from owning it before, even as @janusrex argues China and Alibaba will deliver great returns in the coming years. x.com 

Alibaba's bull case ignores e-commerce margins being cut in half. A post the author replies to argues the stock is cheap at about 15x forward earnings, with cloud growth accelerating to 36% and management targeting $100 billion in annual cloud and AI revenue. x.com 

Alibaba at $110 is one of the most mispriced mega-caps because investors effectively get its AI and cloud business for free. The company is worth about $270B and holds around $70B in cash and liquid investments, while core e-commerce generated almost $5.9B of adjusted EBITA in one quarter, roughly $230B annualized at just 10x. AI and cloud may be Alibaba's most valuable part five years from now. x.com 

Alibaba's new paradigm is issuing shares, which makes the stock unattractive unless it falls by half from here. The latest example is an HK$80B ($10.2B) share placement to fund its full-stack AI capabilities. x.com 

Anthropic's accusation that Alibaba's Qwen lab distilled its frontier models is optically bearish for Alibaba, though no penalties have been enforced. Per Anthropic, the lab used thousands of fake accounts and over 28.8 million exchanges. While penalties are absent, the rewards outweigh the risks for Alibaba if distillation lifts Qwen's market share, as many US AI startups already use Qwen for its cost-effectiveness versus Gemini and others. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba should be taken seriously within the next three months, trading at just 10 times 2028 earnings. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba's $10.2 billion Hong Kong share placement shows its cash burn has caught up with it, and more dilution is likely. Core China ecommerce makes roughly $30 billion of flat EBIT, half of it reinvested in quick commerce to defend share against PDD. Cloud and AI earns $2 billion of EBIT growing 35% but burns about $10 billion a year in AI-model opex. Pro forma EBIT of about $7 billion collapses after $20-25 billion of annual capex, so Alibaba will keep tapping equity markets. x.com