Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
SailPoint is not a favored cybersecurity pick because it faces stiff competition from Microsoft, Okta and CyberArk and is already not cheap on valuation, like others in the space. The leaders CrowdStrike and Cloudflare have been the better exposure, though after their huge run smaller players may make more sense from here; among those, Rubrik was the favorite. x.com
AI is turning security spending from optional to essential, and beats from CrowdStrike and Okta confirm it. CrowdStrike's Q2 revenue rose 26% with record net new ARR of $333M, up 51%, and raised guidance; Okta's RPO reached $4.86B, up 17%, with a second guidance raise this year, after Fortinet also raised. AI agents and coding widen attack surfaces, Morgan Stanley estimates up to $220B of added security demand, and buyers are consolidating onto platforms. x.com x.com
SailPoint remains unattractive because it is losing share to Okta and Microsoft, despite a possible agentic-AI angle on the permissions layer. x.com
SailPoint's identity governance position and moderate valuation make it one of the notably good companies for a medium-to-long-term bet on agents. Nanalyze points to solid growth but says slowing growth could explain its valuation discount to expensive cybersecurity peers. x.com
Cybersecurity looks like AI's next major use case, making CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Okta stocks to own now. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said cybersecurity will be a major use case for AI, and that signal from Huang, more than any personal call, is the reason to pay attention to the group. x.com x.com x.com
Zeta Global, ServiceNow, Datadog and CrowdStrike look increasingly attractive among software names as AI disrupts applications: businesses with proprietary data that build on AI and deliver intelligence and measurable outcomes could win. Cybersecurity valuations remain a concern. x.com
SailPoint may be the most undervalued cybersecurity name at 36x NTM P/E, versus CrowdStrike above 100x and Palo Alto above 75x for similar growth. It sits in identity, where non-human identities such as service accounts, API keys and AI agents are multiplying faster than human headcount ever did, a structurally bigger attack surface, and SailPoint is probably the play on that issue. It passes the initial tests for a deeper look. x.com
Tenable looks cheap among cybersecurity software names, trading at a lower P/E than Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, a lower forward P/E than Fortinet, and one of the group's lowest PEG ratios. Its chart shows a double breakout from a triangle and range highs, with low cycles and confirming on-balance volume. x.com
CrowdStrike is getting very expensive at 193 times forward earnings, even though demand for cybersecurity will keep rising and the stock could get pricier still. Cloud providers will build their own security for customers. It is a good time to look for hidden cybersecurity plays instead, such as ServiceNow, which bought Armis. x.com
SailPoint and Tenable are the cybersecurity names worth owning, while CrowdStrike at 167x forward earnings, a 6x PEG, and Palo Alto Networks at 89x look far too expensive. SailPoint is the cleanest play on agentic identity, not cheap at 55x earnings but much cheaper than CrowdStrike and Palo Alto with faster forecast growth. Tenable trades at 17x forward earnings with EPS growing about 13%, and its net revenue retention in exposure management just rose above 106%. x.com
Cybersecurity is a great AI play, but some valuations are getting absolutely ridiculous, and great companies are not great stocks at any price. CrowdStrike trades at 186x forward earnings and 40x sales, Cloudflare at 209x and 43x, Palo Alto Networks at 87x and 21x, and Rubrik at 327x and 11.5x. x.com
