Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
SailPoint may be the most undervalued cybersecurity name at 36x NTM P/E, versus CrowdStrike above 100x and Palo Alto above 75x for similar growth. It sits in identity, where non-human identities such as service accounts, API keys and AI agents are multiplying faster than human headcount ever did, a structurally bigger attack surface, and SailPoint is probably the play on that issue. It passes the initial tests for a deeper look. x.com
OneSpan's subscription and recurring-revenue growth add operating evidence for its place among the identity-security picks. Revenue beat expectations at $63.9M, and full-year revenue, ARR and adjusted EBITDA guidance rose. Mitek and Clear Secure also look attractive. Financial institutions in Korea and India reported breaches; CrowdStrike says the Korean attacker used an AI penetration-testing tool. Binance had not confirmed the suspected hot-wallet hack. x.com x.com
SailPoint's identity governance position and moderate valuation make it one of the notably good companies for a medium-to-long-term bet on agents. Nanalyze points to solid growth but says slowing growth could explain its valuation discount to expensive cybersecurity peers. x.com
SailPoint is not a favored cybersecurity pick because it faces stiff competition from Microsoft, Okta and CyberArk and is already not cheap on valuation, like others in the space. The leaders CrowdStrike and Cloudflare have been the better exposure, though after their huge run smaller players may make more sense from here; among those, Rubrik was the favorite. x.com
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks need 50%-plus growth to deliver even a 10% IRR over a realistic horizon, but almost no conceivable case gets them there. They feel as dumb as Zoom and Peloton in 2021. Even if revenue doubles over four to five years, Palo Alto would still trade at 10x revenue and CrowdStrike at 20x, leaving little prospect of a real IRR; Palo Alto is growing in the teens today. x.com x.com x.com
SailPoint should benefit because every enterprise AI agent will need identification, tracking and different authorization levels. It trades at 7.6x forward EV/sales while growing 25%+, and recently partnered with Anthropic. x.com
SailPoint remains unattractive because it is losing share to Okta and Microsoft, despite a possible agentic-AI angle on the permissions layer. x.com
Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.com
Anthropic and OpenAI's inevitable move into cybersecurity threatens CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks' valuations. They look like the market's biggest bubble stocks right now; CrowdStrike trades at 40x ARR despite 25% growth and negative GAAP EBIT. x.com x.com
Tenable looks cheap among cybersecurity software names, trading at a lower P/E than Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, a lower forward P/E than Fortinet, and one of the group's lowest PEG ratios. Its chart shows a double breakout from a triangle and range highs, with low cycles and confirming on-balance volume. x.com
CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks should be enormous winners as agentic AI makes cybersecurity every enterprise's top priority, even ahead of AI investment. Threats from rogue internal agents and adversaries mean firms will rush to upgrade security, move to best-of-breed vendors and sharply raise budgets. Expected acceleration at leaders like CrowdStrike over the next 2-6 quarters looks far too low. CrowdStrike is the most advanced; Palo Alto is also favored, though some easy money is made. … Show more
