SailPoint should benefit because every enterprise AI agent will need identification, tracking and different authorization levels. It trades at 7.6x forward EV/sales while growing 25%+, and recently partnered with Anthropic. x.com
The Small Pond
Small- & Micro-Cap Stock Commentary
SailPoint's identity governance position and moderate valuation make it one of the notably good companies for a medium-to-long-term bet on agents. Nanalyze points to solid growth but says slowing growth could explain its valuation discount to expensive cybersecurity peers. x.com
SailPoint may be the most undervalued cybersecurity name at 36x NTM P/E, versus CrowdStrike above 100x and Palo Alto above 75x for similar growth. It sits in identity, where non-human identities such as service accounts, API keys and AI agents are multiplying faster than human headcount ever did, a structurally bigger attack surface, and SailPoint is probably the play on that issue. It passes the initial tests for a deeper look. x.com
SailPoint remains unattractive because it is losing share to Okta and Microsoft, despite a possible agentic-AI angle on the permissions layer. x.com
Okta and SailPoint should benefit as AI agent traffic explodes, because agents generate vast numbers of requests for tiny files, which favors identity security rather than bandwidth plays. At about 8-9x sales they are not superficially cheap, but with change spanning orders of magnitude and business models that scale well, they could trade around 15x today and return about 300% over time. Cloudflare, by comparison, trades near 40x. The long-avoided theme is about to light up. x.com
SailPoint is one of the favorite names in the software sector, based on its weekly chart. x.com
SailPoint is not a favored cybersecurity pick because it faces stiff competition from Microsoft, Okta and CyberArk and is already not cheap on valuation, like others in the space. The leaders CrowdStrike and Cloudflare have been the better exposure, though after their huge run smaller players may make more sense from here; among those, Rubrik was the favorite. x.com
SailPoint and Tenable are the cybersecurity names worth owning, while CrowdStrike at 167x forward earnings, a 6x PEG, and Palo Alto Networks at 89x look far too expensive. SailPoint is the cleanest play on agentic identity, not cheap at 55x earnings but much cheaper than CrowdStrike and Palo Alto with faster forecast growth. Tenable trades at 17x forward earnings with EPS growing about 13%, and its net revenue retention in exposure management just rose above 106%. x.com
Palo Alto Networks wants every AI agent's credentials routed through it, and whoever brokers the keys sits inline on every action a CISO wants to control. It is the only firewall vendor that also owns a top privileged-access stack. Last quarter revenue grew 34% at a 70% gross margin, with $4.11 billion of free cash flow and net cash. The price is steep at 81.2x forward earnings and 28.2x sales, leaving no cushion if cloud platforms credential agents natively. x.com
Okta should capture durable value from agentic AI because every agent touching enterprise data needs authentication, authorization and auditability, making identity infrastructure. Okta is the only independent identity platform with real enterprise distribution, a launched non-human identity product, and early signs of contract-value expansion. It trades far below its historical multiple despite 27% FCF margins, priced as if Microsoft consolidates identity, unlikely in multi-cloud firms. x.com … Show more
Rubrik's high switching costs and emerging AI-security demand underpin growth that looks attractively valued. At 12.9x forward EV/sales, it trades below the cybersecurity peer median relative to expected revenue growth. Subscription ARR grew 32.6% YoY and net dollar retention reached 119%. Agentic AI security adoption remains early; non-GAAP operating margin hit 7.8%, though GAAP net income remains negative partly due to stock-based compensation. x.com