SailPoint is one of the favorite names in the software sector, based on its weekly chart. x.com
TJ
Stock/Options Trader, Volume at Support/Resistance, Publisher of Volume Stocks Newsletter
SailPoint should benefit because every enterprise AI agent will need identification, tracking and different authorization levels. It trades at 7.6x forward EV/sales while growing 25%+, and recently partnered with Anthropic. x.com
SailPoint's identity governance position and moderate valuation make it one of the notably good companies for a medium-to-long-term bet on agents. Nanalyze points to solid growth but says slowing growth could explain its valuation discount to expensive cybersecurity peers. x.com
SailPoint remains unattractive because it is losing share to Okta and Microsoft, despite a possible agentic-AI angle on the permissions layer. x.com
SailPoint may be the most undervalued cybersecurity name at 36x NTM P/E, versus CrowdStrike above 100x and Palo Alto above 75x for similar growth. It sits in identity, where non-human identities such as service accounts, API keys and AI agents are multiplying faster than human headcount ever did, a structurally bigger attack surface, and SailPoint is probably the play on that issue. It passes the initial tests for a deeper look. x.com
Okta and SailPoint should benefit as AI agent traffic explodes, because agents generate vast numbers of requests for tiny files, which favors identity security rather than bandwidth plays. At about 8-9x sales they are not superficially cheap, but with change spanning orders of magnitude and business models that scale well, they could trade around 15x today and return about 300% over time. Cloudflare, by comparison, trades near 40x. The long-avoided theme is about to light up. x.com
SailPoint is not a favored cybersecurity pick because it faces stiff competition from Microsoft, Okta and CyberArk and is already not cheap on valuation, like others in the space. The leaders CrowdStrike and Cloudflare have been the better exposure, though after their huge run smaller players may make more sense from here; among those, Rubrik was the favorite. x.com
SailPoint and Tenable are the cybersecurity names worth owning, while CrowdStrike at 167x forward earnings, a 6x PEG, and Palo Alto Networks at 89x look far too expensive. SailPoint is the cleanest play on agentic identity, not cheap at 55x earnings but much cheaper than CrowdStrike and Palo Alto with faster forecast growth. Tenable trades at 17x forward earnings with EPS growing about 13%, and its net revenue retention in exposure management just rose above 106%. x.com
Software stocks look poised to rebound after being deeply oversold, with the data turning bullish. Breadth across 41 software names flipped from under 5% to 82.5% above their 10-day averages in three weeks, oversold readings hit 90.1 and stress eased to 35.6. Models put the 3-day probability of a rise at 85% and the 20-day crash probability at just 6.5%, with six of nine models bullish and global liquidity supportive. Leaders include Oracle, AppLovin and Microsoft. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Constellation Software and Topicus are being wrongly lumped in with AI software fears, setting them up to rerate back toward a 3% free cash flow yield once things clear. They adapt, execute and take advantage of deals, with record capital deployments, and moats in vertical market software are shifting rather than disappearing; much of software can adapt with the right culture. A post the author replies to counters that new competitors have beaten Harris and Tyler in govtech. x.com x.com x.com