Alva - Your AI Investing Agent

Martin Bradstreet

Investor & Programmer, Former Poker Player

5 Aug, 23:09Latest

Alphabet's AI edge rested on talent density, and that is steadily draining away. Jeff Dean, who was heavily involved in the TPU win, and Noam Shazeer have both left, Dean to found Discovery Loop, while OpenAI's and Anthropic's benches look extremely strong. Demis Hassabis seems to have one foot out the door with Isomorphic Labs. Google has executed better than credited, with cheap, fast Gemini and accelerating search revenue, but the original reason to own it is fading. x.com x.com x.com

GOOGL

2 Jun, 03:34

Alphabet's $80B raise is not bearish; it shows the AI race is so large that giants now act like venture-backed companies. Raising as much as possible makes sense after the stock more than doubled on cloud growth and search not dying, but doing it gradually avoids waste and bottlenecks. The dilution is a little over 1% of market cap. If AI succeeds, by 2040 Google will matter more than the world's third most important country, replacing massive swathes of human work. x.com

GOOGL

Jo Bhakdi

Investor, Tesla & AI Stocks

29 Oct

GOOG

Google's search is becoming less profitable as AI agents disrupt its core business. Even perfect execution could make the transition painful, and Google is famously poor at new products. Its conduct over the past decade also raises stronger ethical objections than Meta's. Despite strong fundamentals, explosive cloud growth, no real risk and substantial growth ahead, Alphabet is unattractive relative to most other major AI companies. x.com

Terry

Private Fund Portfolio Manager & Trader

29 Oct

GOOG

Google's advertising business is losing ground to Meta and others, while Cloud, including TPU hardware sales, has not yet delivered the growth driving its AI transition. The shift from search to an AI-infrastructure "shovel seller" has not succeeded yet, so a bullish turnaround case still requires waiting for stabilization before considering a bottom. x.com

Herman Jin

Formerly in Asia FICC at Goldman Sachs, Macro & Semiconductor Investing

29 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's search monopoly faces a different competitive game as agent companies build their own search tools. Google Cloud grew 103%, but that was not enough to offset disappointing ads growth. Its only path is to accelerate AI training and keep spending on capex. Search will never be the same, and the risk-reward has changed, though Alphabet remains an optimistic prospect. x.com x.com x.com

The Long Investor

Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

28 Oct

GOOG

Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Thierry from arvy

CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing

5 Aug

GOOGL

Alphabet's real AI moat, a few hundred irreplaceable people, is walking out. Jeff Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat, Gemini technical lead Oriol Vinyals and Google Brain co-founder Quoc Le left together as Demis Hassabis stepped back from running DeepMind, six weeks after John Jumper left for Anthropic. Google is a founding investor in their new company and supplies its first-year compute, buying a seat outside after failing to keep them. Infrastructure can be rented; that talent cannot be rebuilt. x.com

Daniel

Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

29 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's slowing Search growth and expected negative free cash flow are an overreaction because its next AI monetization wave and infrastructure buildout support long-term growth. AI Mode ads are expanding internationally, Gemini has passed 1 billion users without ads, and Google is accepting lower Cloud margins to secure third-party compute. Analysts expect FCF to recover sharply in 2028 as AI investments generate cash. x.com x.com x.com

Ophir Gottlieb

CEO of CMLviz, Former Options Market Maker

29 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search, potentially threatening its Search business. AI drove the fastest Search query growth in five years, yet Search revenue growth slowed to 12%; defending Search makes even greater AI investment necessary, not optional. Google Cloud grew 103% year over year to a $123 billion annual run rate. The report could not have been better for the AI infrastructure trade, but its risks are bearish for Alphabet's stock. x.com

Kairos

Stock Research

21 Jul

GOOG

Alphabet's stock gains from about $150 to $350 were driven by strong model releases, and now Gemini is no longer on the frontier. Gemini 3.1 still trails GPT 5.5 and Opus 4.8, and the new Gemini Flash 3.6 was unimpressive, neither as good nor as cheap as frontier models. Alphabet's multiple can only expand if the market believes it is an AI winner, so the perception that Gemini is losing could keep the stock flat for a while. Google Cloud should still do well on its infrastructure and pricing. … Show more

Alexander Bittan

Long-Term Frontier-Technology Investor, Neuralink/Anduril/Perplexity

29 Oct

GOOGL

Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com x.com … Show more

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

29 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI capex payback is being repriced, making its post-earnings decline more than a one-day mood swing. Guidance and cloud and AI margin commentary are the near-term tests. If growth continues but the multiple compresses, the risk is duration in mega-cap AI, not a collapse in technology growth. x.com

Ask Alva about this thesis

Ask Alva about this thesis