Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.com 

Software is nowhere near a floor because AI has broken the assumption behind the sector's premium: very long-duration, highly recurring revenue. Competition is intensifying, new products such as Anthropic's suite far outperform incumbents like Microsoft Copilot, and AI natives move faster without legacy constraints. Accounting flatters results, with Snowflake's SBC above its CY25 free cash flow. Even at 30x GAAP earnings most names have downside, versus Alphabet at 23x and Nvidia at 14x. x.com  … Show more

Big money is rotating out of overextended chips and AI plays, leaving semiconductor stocks that went straight up as exit liquidity for retail still piling in. The money is moving into software such as Accenture, Salesforce and ServiceNow, energy names Hawaiian Electric and Southern Company, and boring dividend stocks Whirlpool, Target and UPS. It is also flowing into China: Alibaba, JD.com, PDD, Baidu and Chinese internet stocks. x.com  x.com 

Software stocks face customers shifting budgets to AI infrastructure and cybersecurity while vendors spend more on tokens than planned. IBM said this last week and fell almost 30% in one day, and Pegasystems said the same this morning. That is good reason to be nervous holding ServiceNow into tonight's earnings, though it could surprise to the upside if it avoids the issue. Palantir is the only software name worth owning right now. x.com 

Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.com 

Adobe, Salesforce and ServiceNow still generate massive cash flow, push deeper into AI and sit at the center of enterprise operations. Three of the biggest SaaS names remain beaten up in 2026; their valuations have been crushed, but the long-term opportunity may not have been. The market has swung way too far against them. x.com 

Semiconductors should return to their highs because AI spending keeps hitting records while chip stocks fall. Microsoft and Meta signaled roughly $250B of AI spending this year, effectively saying "buy more chips", yet chip stocks are down 24%. A drop beyond 30% would warrant more aggressive buying. x.com  x.com 

Hyperscalers' incremental return on capital is cratering, so hard spending decisions are coming. In the June quarter, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet grew LTM EBIT 20% but needed 38% more deployed capital, before token prices cratered and with much demand from non-self-sustaining OpenAI. Compute and models may become a utility-like commodity. Insiders are selling, with Jeff Bezos filing to sell $4B of Amazon stock, and Google's $25B bond deal widened hyperscaler credit spreads. x.com  x.com 

Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Upcoming SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will probably pull liquidity out of Microsoft, Meta, software stocks and tax-loss-harvesting losers. A post the author quotes argues those listings over the next few months must draw money away from junkier stocks right after a big speculative run-up, and that it may be time to size up shorts. x.com