Financial tollbooth businesses are a great place to invest because they are embedded in the system, take a cut whenever money moves or decisions are made, and need little capital. S&P Global and Moody's, tied to credit markets, are hard to replace; FICO is strong but more exposed to pricing backlash; CME gains when volatility lifts volumes; LSEG fits too. MSCI is the favorite, with fees spread across trillions tied to benchmarks for durable pricing power, and insider buying near current prices. … Show more

S&P Global's ratings and indices could form an exceptionally profitable, wide-moat standalone business. Without its other units, their implied operating margin would be around 68%, among the market's top five; that makes further spinoffs sensible, though the separation is hypothetical. x.com  x.com 

Moody's and S&P Global could de-rate from high starting multiples if generalist portfolio managers come to see them as FICO 2.0. Their industry structures differ, but parallels in standards, pricing power and regulatory exposure could build a narrative that their pricing power is tapped out after the FICO case study, compressing multiples further. So far their de-rating has come from macro and AI pressure, not such fears. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The coming IPO wave led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will create wealth that must flow through exchanges, brokers, wealth and alternative managers and luxury brands, still valued below peaks. Rebalancing, margin loans and estate plans run on the same rails that handled the offerings. SpaceX alone brought about $500M in underwriting fees to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and Nasdaq's fast-entry rule forces index buying within 15 days. In the 1990s this plumbing scaled with the money. x.com  … Show more

Moody's is one of the world's most beautiful businesses because trusted ratings take decades to establish, protecting its duopoly with S&P and its pricing power. Operating margins exceed 45%, and Moody's Analytics subscriptions make revenue quite resilient when companies issue less debt. Decades of credit-risk data are a huge AI product opportunity; fast-growing private credit also needs ratings. x.com 

These 12 stocks are quality compounders sharing pricing power, recurring demand, strong returns on capital and disciplined management. Domino's earns royalties, AutoZone serves an aging fleet, Progressive underwrites with data, Waste Management owns routes and landfills, Grainger is embedded in operations, S&P Global and FICO are mission-critical, Rollins has recurring pest control, Copart an auction network, Visa a fee network, HEICO niche aerospace parts, Costco loyal members. x.com  x.com  … Show more

S&P Global and Moody's collect a toll on AI capex either way: if data-center returns are bond-like, the buildout gets funded with bonds, each needing a rating at issue and surveillance while outstanding. Low returns plus heavy capex keep the issuance calendar full while equity holders eat thin returns. New issuance may stay quiet given a 2028-weighted refinancing wall and wider spreads, but surveillance and index revenue bill off outstanding debt. Both traded well under 25x in past droughts. … Show more

Microsoft, ServiceNow, Netflix, Meta Platforms, S&P Global, Amazon, Fair Isaac and Novo Nordisk look like a great opportunity today as high-quality companies, on the view that over the long term a stock's valuation tracks its earnings growth, so price should follow EPS. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Six high-quality favorites of well-known investors trade at discounts: Uber 28%, held by Bill Ackman and Thomas Russo; Fair Isaac 53% and Intuit 46%, held by Dev Kantesaria and Lindsell Train; Microsoft 29%, held by AltaRock and Chris Hohn; Brookfield 23%, held by Josh Tarasoff and Chuck Akre; and S&P Global 27%, held by Kantesaria and Hohn. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields need to stay high because megacap tech companies now compete for bond buyers. Oracle bonds yield over 8%, Meta's over 7%, and Google sold a 10x-oversubscribed 100-year sterling bond above 6%, while hyperscaler issuance is surging from $35B toward $200B. Megacaps are becoming as creditworthy as governments, making this a new paradigm of persistent competition, and Warsh appears to agree hyperscaler debt plays a role. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com