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Broadcom keeps converting its largest customers into locked, multi-year custom silicon commitments, and companies don't sign five-year deals for easily replaced parts. An 8-K shows Broadcom and Apple expanding their partnership through 2031, with Broadcom developing and supplying custom ASICs for multiple generations of Apple products, mirroring the Google agreement filed in April. Analysts raised targets after Broadcom's 13% drop on a record quarter, with HSBC at a Street-high $600. x.com
Broadcom's reported Samsung deal is very bullish because it secures 2nm foundry, HBM memory and advanced packaging for its custom AI accelerators. Per @FinnStockinger, the deal is estimated above $200B through 2030 and makes Samsung a one-stop shop delivering finished modules, so Broadcom need not fight for limited TSMC capacity. He flags Samsung's yield execution as the biggest wild card. x.com
Broadcom's Samsung deal secures a dedicated production pipeline for its custom AI chips through the decade instead of fighting for TSMC capacity. The collaboration, estimated above $200B through 2030, gives Broadcom 2nm foundry, HBM and advanced packaging from the only company with all three under one roof. Samsung's execution is the wild card: SF2 yields run 50-60% versus about 90% for TSMC's N2, but a rise toward 70%+ over 18-24 months would unlock capacity TSMC cannot provide. x.com
Broadcom's Jalapeño chip deal with OpenAI is already priced in and margin dilutive. OpenAI guides to about 30 GW by 2030; at 30-40% Jalapeño, that is 9-12 GW, matching the 10 GW deal signed in October 2025. Selling finished chips, Broadcom books full ASPs but fronts wafers, HBM and other costs, about $15 billion per GW or $25-45 billion a year, at 50-60% margins at best. FY27 guidance already tops $100 billion; the bull case is maybe $120 billion. Broadcom even lends OpenAI the build money. … Show more
Broadcom's integrated optics, electronics and packaging could lower custom-chip system costs because separate suppliers defend their margins. At similar valuations, it is preferred to Nvidia and has more room to beat expectations. Google TPU v8 shipments are estimated at 4.0M in 2026 and 9.1M in 2027, assuming Broadcom supplies the remainder after MediaTek's allocation. Anthropic financing adds value only if chip profit exceeds likely support payments and capacity costs. x.com x.com
Google TPU adoption could broaden the AI hardware opportunity beyond Nvidia, with demand reaching custom ASICs, HBM, packaging, optics and testing. Per The Information, OpenAI reportedly plans to buy Google's TPUs and is hiring compiler engineers, but no purchase is confirmed. Broadcom, SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, TSMC, Coherent, Lumentum, FormFactor and Teradyne could benefit. x.com
ASIC design is a race to the bottom, very bearish for Broadcom, MediaTek and Marvell as more leading-edge wafer capacity comes online from TSMC, Intel and Samsung. Google sources IP and swaps vendors constantly, showing the design houses add little differentiated value, transceivers aside. AMD, Apple and Nvidia do not outsource because it dilutes margins and most IP is one-size-fits-all. At scale, wafer allocation is the real constraint; the shift may take a year or two. x.com x.com
Anthropic's $63B custom-chip deal bolsters Broadcom's case for growth from custom AI silicon. OpenAI's Jalapeño chip is seen as next, and the AI chip supercycle is just getting started. x.com
Broadcom's custom silicon business stands to turn Anthropic's IPO funding into chip orders. The cash raised for Anthropic's compute spending would flow down the stack into Broadcom's order book. x.com
Broadcom has taken the second pill, pointing to further downside for the stock. x.com
Broadcom's reported $63 billion deal to finance AI chips for Anthropic is a long-term bullish catalyst for AI and semiconductor stocks. Kalshi Finance reports the arrangement; the bullish view covers Broadcom, TSMC, Nvidia, Nebius and the SMH and SOXX semiconductor ETFs. x.com