SoFi is the highest-conviction pick among eight businesses to own for 5+ years, as the market underestimates how big its financial ecosystem can become. Amazon has many ways to compound; Uber's core works, with autonomy as upside; ServiceNow has deep switching costs and a long AI runway. Zeta Global is riskier, with huge upside if growth quality holds. Netflix's margins, cash flow, pricing power, ads and scale are underrated; AMD offers data center exposure; AppLovin appeals at the right price. … Show more

Quality and price favor these eight stocks. Amazon improves as its multiple falls; Uber generates serious cash flow; Netflix is more profitable at a lower multiple; ServiceNow grew amid multiple compression. SoFi's appeal hinges on earnings near management's long-term expectations. McDonald's ranks among the world's highest-quality businesses at one of its more reasonable valuations in years. AI disruption weighs on Adobe's valuation; Brookfield compounds assets at a comfortable long-term price. … Show more

Security software is arguably more of an AI bubble than semiconductors. Firms are bid up to nosebleed multiples on moderate AI-related revenue acceleration while facing medium- to long-term risks from Microsoft, Google and the AI labs and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Their forward P/Es rest on non-GAAP earnings that exclude large stock compensation. A reversal could come from results missing high buy-side bars, security share gains by Microsoft or Google, or AI lab security launches. x.com  … Show more

These ten companies could become materially larger businesses over the next 5-10 years. SoFi is early in building an ecosystem around a fast-growing member base; AMD has data center, AI and rack-scale growth; Oscar pairs growth with better insurance economics; Zeta is small versus its opportunity. AI can make ServiceNow more central; Snap, the most speculative, has nearly a billion users; AppLovin's ad engine is powerful; CoreWeave rides AI demand; CrowdStrike and Toast keep widening platforms. … Show more

These companies each have a second growth engine that could become as important as the core over the next few years. SoFi is shifting toward fee-based financial services, and AMD's AI accelerators could grow data center's share. Amazon's advertising is high-margin on traffic it already owns, and Uber's delivery now has scale and better economics. Snap's other revenue grew 85%, ServiceNow's AI can deepen enterprise spend, and Zeta adds customers while earning more from each. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Netflix at 33x is too expensive for 16% revenue growth after an extremely ugly quarter. It missed its EPS guide and guided lower, is about to test short-form video, which says a lot about organic growth concerns, and its founder is leaving. By comparison, Nvidia trades at 22x growing 72% and Reddit at 21x growing 69%. x.com 

Cash generation and market values have diverged for these twelve beaten-down stocks. Over the long term, valuations tend to follow the cash businesses produce; the charts compare quarterly free cash flow with market capitalization for Uber, Netflix, Intuit, Adobe, PayPal, McDonald's, Snap, Duolingo, Chewy, Pinterest, Reddit and e.l.f. Beauty. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Micron, Intel, AMD, Tesla and SanDisk look overextended and due for a pullback because their share prices have outpaced earnings over five years, and stocks follow EPS over time, as Peter Lynch said. Price versus EPS growth: Micron +1,071% vs +758%, Intel +97% vs -112%, AMD +453% vs -5%, Tesla +78% vs +7%, and SanDisk +4,746% vs +717%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Competitive moats make growth harder to take away and are central to the long-term case for Amazon, ServiceNow, Uber, Netflix, AMD and SoFi. Amazon's combined commerce, ads and AWS scale is hard to recreate, and ServiceNow's workflow lock-in shows in a 98% renewal rate. Uber riders using both Mobility and Delivery generate over 3x the bookings, Netflix's global reach is hard to copy, and AMD's EPYC, Instinct and ROCm platform deepens with adoption. SoFi's cross-sell moat is still emerging. x.com  … Show more