Philip
Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor
TSMC is the one company the AI chip boom cannot happen without, since every advanced chip runs through its fabs and Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm all depend on it. Q1 profit rose 58% to a record and revenue grew 35% to $35B, with high-performance computing now 61% of sales. It is spending $52-56B on capex this year to build capacity competitors are a decade behind replicating. x.comÂ
TSMC wins no matter which chip carries the hype of the moment. Nvidia GPUs, Intel CPUs, Apple Silicon, Marvell, AMD, Broadcom and trendy smaller names such as Credo and Astera Labs all ultimately feed TSMC, making it a long-term hold. x.comÂ
TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.comÂ
TSMC manufactures chips for most of the leading tech companies while Intel still struggles with its own foundry. It makes NVIDIA's GPUs, Apple's phone chips, AMD's processors and Google's TPUs, plus chips for Amazon, Microsoft and Meta. x.com x.comÂ
Architecture changes could lift TSMC wafer demand. Shifting from 12-high to 8-high lifts volumes; an on-device AI phone upgrade cycle would be enormously bullish, while ASIC gains over Nvidia help because ASICs use more wafers. TSMC is arguably more vital to AI buildout than MAG stocks and a reasonable extended-AI-cycle play at a not-crazy multiple, barring big macro events. Margins may not expand as capex rises; a Terrafab partnership, if it happens, would somewhat ease Intel competition risk. … Show more
TSMC's failure to prioritize Apple marks an irreversible turning point that the market will take a long time to price, even though near-term results won't be hurt. Apple paid development costs for 2nm and saw itself as a de facto shareholder, yet got no priority supply. TSMC is not expanding capacity and told Google to go through back-end partners. That treatment drives customers like Apple toward Intel, and years from now CC Wei's stance will be looked back on with regret. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
TSMC is the single supplier the AI revolution depends on, so owning it means owning the supply chain the world follows. Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Google and Meta all rely on its fabs in Taiwan. TSMC makes up 42% of Taiwan's stock market, which at nearly $5 trillion rivals India's $4.9 trillion despite 23 million people against 1.4 billion. x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor wins as OpenAI, Google, Apple, Meta, AMD, Anthropic and Nvidia all make their own chips. x.comÂ
TSMC looks like it has put in a blowoff top, rising even on an announcement that it cannot afford new ASML equipment. x.comÂ
TSMC's strong AI demand is straining supply, while solid company fundamentals and attractive semiconductor valuations make an abrupt stop to its advance unlikely. TSMC's Wendell Huang expects 2026-28 capex to be significantly higher than in the previous three years to support customer growth; he says most capex is tied to long-term demand. x.comÂ