Master of Crypto
Crypto Market Intelligence Publisher
TSMC is the single supplier the AI revolution depends on, so owning it means owning the supply chain the world follows. Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Google and Meta all rely on its fabs in Taiwan. TSMC makes up 42% of Taiwan's stock market, which at nearly $5 trillion rivals India's $4.9 trillion despite 23 million people against 1.4 billion. x.comÂ
TSMC is irreplaceable as the maker of the world's most advanced chips for Nvidia, Apple and AMD. x.comÂ
TSMC manufactures chips for most of the leading tech companies while Intel still struggles with its own foundry. It makes NVIDIA's GPUs, Apple's phone chips, AMD's processors and Google's TPUs, plus chips for Amazon, Microsoft and Meta. x.com x.comÂ
TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor wins as OpenAI, Google, Apple, Meta, AMD, Anthropic and Nvidia all make their own chips. x.comÂ
Architecture changes could lift TSMC wafer demand. Shifting from 12-high to 8-high lifts volumes; an on-device AI phone upgrade cycle would be enormously bullish, while ASIC gains over Nvidia help because ASICs use more wafers. TSMC is arguably more vital to AI buildout than MAG stocks and a reasonable extended-AI-cycle play at a not-crazy multiple, barring big macro events. Margins may not expand as capex rises; a Terrafab partnership, if it happens, would somewhat ease Intel competition risk. … Show more
TSMC is not a favorite longer term because the US administration and US companies have a stated goal of building a domestic source of silicon supply, and relationships toward that are already being forged. x.comÂ
TSMC's US expansion reduces its China risk. One of the greatest companies in the world, it has completed construction of its second Phoenix fab, per MetroPhoenix, as part of its reported $265 billion US investment. x.comÂ
TSMC's AI-era growth opportunity makes it an incredibly bullish investment. CEO C.C. Wei said its annualized growth opportunity is probably higher than a high-50% CAGR. x.comÂ
TSMC's failure to prioritize Apple marks an irreversible turning point that the market will take a long time to price, even though near-term results won't be hurt. Apple paid development costs for 2nm and saw itself as a de facto shareholder, yet got no priority supply. TSMC is not expanding capacity and told Google to go through back-end partners. That treatment drives customers like Apple toward Intel, and years from now CC Wei's stance will be looked back on with regret. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
TSMC wins regardless of which AI chip prevails, whether Nvidia's GB200 or Google's Ironwood TPU, which would make it a no-brainer if not for having the highest Taiwan risk of any stock, though most stocks are exposed at different levels. x.comÂ
