Brazilian equities are early in a reversal that has only just started. Emerging markets are running in an opposite cycle to the US market and have begun to turn, and Brazil looks the strongest of them and serves as a safe haven. x.comÂ
The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Brazilian equities remain a strong opportunity against other global emerging markets because fiscal easing, rate cuts and Brazil's critical-minerals edge survive election results. Brazil is down only 6% for the month after an earlier rally and remains near its four-month range. Lula's terms have been net positive for EWZ; this is a bet on Brazil's outlook, not on who wins the presidency. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Brazilian equities offer commodity and critical-mineral exposure, faster renewable-powered data-center grid connections, and diversification from the US. EWZ's $702 million inflow on October 5 was the largest daily inflow in the chart's history. That supports the bull case as investors recognize Brazil's potential, though the rush also looks like reactive FOMO. x.comÂ
Brazilian equities could take months to absorb exits by funds unwilling to hold stocks under Lula, despite single-digit P/Es. The Bovespa looks to be putting in a 3.5-year cycle peak, and EWZ looks lower over the next few weeks or months. After a failed breakout, EWZ likely returns to the bottom of its consolidation near $26 weekly demand, though a short-term bounce may come first. x.comÂ
Political fear after Lula election wins is a buying opportunity in Brazilian stocks, including EWZ, MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings. In USD, the table shows 12-month gains of 115% after 2002, 76% after 2006 and 18.5% after 2022, though shorter-term returns varied. x.comÂ
Brazilian equities look set to climb after Bolsonaro's son defeated President Lula, sparking expectations of pro-capital, pro-business policy. The Brazil ETF jumped 13% in a day, confirming on the weekly chart a breakout from a large wedge dating to 2010, then a retest and second leg higher. Don't chase it; wait for a technical pullback to enter. x.comÂ
Socialist politics are a poor backdrop for Brazilian equities. A 23% drop in EWZ is not a compelling long case when it merely returns prices to where they stood before the first election. x.comÂ
Banco Santander Brasil offers exposure to a stronger Brazilian currency, with a dividend yield above 7% and consensus estimates of sharply accelerating EPS. Its post-election pullback does not make sense. x.comÂ
Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.comÂ
Lula's fourth mandate has dealt Brazilian equities a political shock, with a risk of deeper losses after the initial selloff. EWZ fell about 18% overnight and 27% by morning; the intraday recovery does not settle what comes next, given the much deeper falls after Argentina's 2019 primary-election shock. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Petrobras leads this week's EWT Growth Leaders because of surging earnings and sales in the leading energy group. It ranks #1 with a 91 score and A rating: last-quarter EPS rose 121% year over year, sales 60%, and annual EPS 191%. A breakout above 26.42 or a fourth-wave pullback to 24.3-23.0 offers a setup for a projected fifth wave to 32.8-33.2. x.comÂ